Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

126 games unified from 354 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-24.

Games126
Settled105
First edge-0.5%
Pregame edge-1.9%
Average CLV-1.2%
Totals CLV-1.5%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.1164 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSan Diego Padres +119Model 43.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Diego Padres +140Model 40.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.0%+119 → +140Logit -0.1626 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 10.5 +240Model 26.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 73.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -2902 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 8.5 +124Model 42.8% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 57.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+124 → -1372 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 80.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +351Model 19.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3512 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -9672 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 66.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +181Model 33.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2762 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 6.5 -183Model 62.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 37.5% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-183 → +1652 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost7-5Paper stake $99 · P/L -$99Paper betAthletics +152Model 42.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $99Paper betAthletics +152Model 42.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $99+0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.0008 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 10.5 +105Model 52.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 +114Model 52.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.0824 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassOver 8.5 -263Model 53.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -18.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 46.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 21.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-5PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 56.0% · Market 40.2%Edge +15.9% · Full Kelly 27.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 -168Model 44.0% · Market 63.2%Edge -19.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1682 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassOver 5.5 -869Model 78.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 21.2% · Market 12.7%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-869 → +6852 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 82.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 36.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 13.5 +218Model 17.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassUnder 12.5 -183Model 76.3% · Market 64.7%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 33.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +146Model 23.7% · Market 40.7%Edge -17.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-183 → +1462 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-5PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 28.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -609Model 71.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+490 → -6092 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassUnder 14.5 -340Model 86.3% · Market 77.3%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 39.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 14.5 +280Model 13.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 90.1% · Market 83.0%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 41.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 15.5 +398Model 9.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3982 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-5PassUnder 11.5 -131Model 53.5% · Market 56.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +119Model 29.1% · Market 46.2%Edge -17.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-131 → +1194 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassOver 7.5 -360Model 61.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -16.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 38.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 42.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners -191Model 64.9% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+166 → -1918 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+114 → +119Logit -0.0434 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-4PassOver 7.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 49.1% · Market 59.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+109 → -1424 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-4PassOver 8.5 +173Model 43.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +173Model 43.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%+173 → +173Logit 0.0212 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-4PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 66.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +266Model 33.3% · Market 27.3%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-4PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 18.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -381Model 82.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+296 → -3812 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-4PassOver 5.5 -199Model 71.1% · Market 66.6%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 28.9% · Market 37.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-199 → +1662 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-4PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 12.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -6602 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-4PassOver 10.5 +351Model 27.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 73.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-4PassOver 11.5 +574Model 19.9% · Market 14.8%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 80.1% · Market 87.8%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7192 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedWon7-6Paper stake $157 · P/L $312Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 37.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $157Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 37.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $157+0.0%+198 → +198Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-6PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 31.3% · Market 35.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1882 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-6PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -137Model 57.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → -1375 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-6PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 60.1% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +166Model 39.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-199 → +1662 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-6PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.4% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+756 → -9672 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-6PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-6PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.2% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2762 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-6PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-6PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 5.5 +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.0453 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassTampa Bay Rays +124Model 43.8% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays +124Model 44.3% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-6PassOver 7.5 +188Model 48.8% · Market 35.2%Edge +13.7% · Full Kelly 21.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -218Model 51.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+188 → -2182 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-6PassUnder 10.5 -719Model 74.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +574Model 25.1% · Market 14.8%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-719 → +5742 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 6.5 -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 +119Model 60.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 27.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1196 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 8.5 -322Model 59.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -17.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +266Model 40.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +13.6% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-6PassOver 9.5 +398Model 31.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -489Model 68.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 3.5 +313Model 13.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -381Model 87.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 37.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 4.5 +218Model 19.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -263Model 80.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 30.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+218 → -2632 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassCleveland Guardians +114Model 45.0% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBoston Red Sox -126Model 55.3% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1268 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassOver 8.5 +198Model 48.4% · Market 33.6%Edge +14.8% · Full Kelly 22.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 51.6% · Market 70.1%Edge -18.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+198 → -2292 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 43.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -18.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+12.9%+101 → -161Logit 0.5284 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-0PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 75.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -13.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +685Model 24.2% · Market 12.7%Edge +11.5% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-869 → +6852 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassOver 9.5 +313Model 38.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +14.3% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 61.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -17.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassOver 4.5 -322Model 84.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 36.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 15.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassOver 3.5 -525Model 90.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 38.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 9.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +3982 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassOver 5.5 -175Model 75.2% · Market 63.6%Edge +11.5% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 24.8% · Market 40.7%Edge -15.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1462 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassOver 10.5 +398Model 31.9% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 68.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.0394 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassPhiladelphia Phillies -107Model 49.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMilwaukee Brewers +109Model 51.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1098 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 9.5 +180Model 38.3% · Market 36.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 61.7% · Market 68.1%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+180 → -2092 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.2% · Market 45.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.5%-107 → +124Logit -0.2624 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.7% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -2902 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+490 → -6092 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -290Model 75.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -2902 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-967 → +6852 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -2082 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -5642 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost12-8Paper stake $116 · P/L -$116Paper betColorado Rockies +159Model 41.5% · Market 38.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $116Paper betColorado Rockies +166Model 41.5% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $155-1.0%+159 → +166Logit -0.0438 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPending12-8PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.0766 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betPending12-8PassOver 10.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.0765 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betWon12-8PassUnder 13.5 -340Model 68.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 13.5 +280Model 31.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost12-8PassOver 6.5 -489Model 83.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +373Model 16.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3732 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost12-8PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 93.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 6.6% · Market 8.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1428 → +10742 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon12-8PassUnder 12.5 -251Model 60.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +208Model 39.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-251 → +2082 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no betWon12-8PassUnder 14.5 -458Model 73.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 14.5 +373Model 26.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon12-8PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 12.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -719Model 87.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -7192 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost12-8PassOver 8.5 -191Model 69.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 30.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-191 → +1592 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost12-8PassOver 11.5 +158Model 45.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -175Model 54.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+158 → -1752 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon12-8PassUnder 7.5 +218Model 24.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -263Model 75.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+218 → -2632 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassTexas Rangers -137Model 54.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-137 → +1098 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -116Model 49.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.1974 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 5.5 -340Model 80.9% · Market 77.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 16.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2662 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 59.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +218Model 40.3% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 11.5 +313Model 32.0% · Market 24.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 68.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 73.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +425Model 26.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 7.5 -131Model 64.2% · Market 57.3%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 17.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 35.8% · Market 46.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-131 → +1192 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 25.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -228Model 74.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 52.9% · Market 64.6%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +158Model 47.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1582 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.9% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+841 → -10872 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 4.5 -719Model 88.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 11.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-719 → +5742 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +119Model 50.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-8.0%-116 → +119Logit -0.3224 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMiami Marlins +173Model 42.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +173Model 37.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.0008 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 4.5 -404Model 85.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 25.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 14.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3132 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 11.5 +529Model 24.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 75.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6602 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 67.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +351Model 32.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3512 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 8.5 +165Model 49.1% · Market 38.2%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 50.9% · Market 65.1%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+165 → -1832 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 6.5 -142Model 68.0% · Market 58.7%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 22.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 32.0% · Market 44.7%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-142 → +1292 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 3.5 -660Model 90.3% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 26.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.7% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 60.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +252Model 39.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-306 → +2522 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 24.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -208Model 75.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 25.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+166 → -2082 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.0454 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost9-1Paper stake $125 · P/L -$125Paper betKansas City Royals +119Model 48.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $125Paper betKansas City Royals +119Model 48.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $125+0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.0008 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.4% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.6% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+1074 → -14282 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassOver 5.5 -430Model 78.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 21.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3512 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassOver 6.5 -290Model 71.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 28.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 63.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +166Model 36.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-199 → +1662 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassOver 9.5 +129Model 43.0% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 57.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1422 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +331Model 22.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 39.5% · Market 40.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -168Model 60.5% · Market 63.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1682 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassOver 11.5 +252Model 28.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 71.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 12.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -869Model 87.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -8692 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassPittsburgh Pirates -148Model 59.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 41.5% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-148 → +1344 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 48.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.1663 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 8.5 -191Model 52.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +173Model 47.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-191 → +1732 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 10.5 +373Model 31.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 68.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 5.5 -199Model 74.7% · Market 66.6%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 24.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 25.3% · Market 37.6%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-199 → +1662 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.9% · Market 85.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 28.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 10.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 4.5 -381Model 84.6% · Market 79.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 15.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-381 → +3132 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 62.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +266Model 37.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 7.5 +124Model 55.6% · Market 45.2%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -137Model 44.4% · Market 58.2%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+124 → -1372 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 76.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +529Model 23.8% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 24, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,971
Cumulative
-0.3%
Best day
-0.3%
Worst day
-0.3%
Settled bets
4

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.3%-0.4%Sep 24Sep 25

Daily bankroll return

+0.5%-0.5%Sep 24Sep 25

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$9,964

-$36 · -0.4%

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.2%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,785 · tracked -$28 on $497 settled paper stake · -5.7% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$9,925

-$75 · -0.8%

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.3%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,625 · tracked -$67 on $536 settled paper stake · -12.5% ROI

Totals · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
12
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%