Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

162 games unified from 445 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-23.

Games162
Settled133
First edge-2.3%
Pregame edge-0.2%
Average CLV-1.4%
Totals CLV-2.2%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedWon5-1Paper stake $90 · P/L $170Paper betSan Diego Padres +189Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $90Paper betSan Diego Padres +189Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $90+0.0%+189 → +189Logit 0.0008 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → +1014 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 18.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 37.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -218Model 62.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+181 → -2182 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 9.5 +165Model 33.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 67.0% · Market 65.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+165 → -1832 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 46.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -131Model 50.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+119 → -1312 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 73.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +218Model 26.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 87.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 12.2% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +7562 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 84.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 80.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +313Model 19.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-381 → +3132 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 29.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -322Model 70.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+266 → -3222 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassHouston Astros +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners -126Model 54.5% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1268 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+101 → -107Logit 0.0784 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 57.6% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +129Model 42.4% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-137 → +1292 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-6PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-6PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 73.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2762 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-6PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 85.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 37.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -191Model 62.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+159 → -1912 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 67.3% · Market 68.1%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +188Model 32.7% · Market 35.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-209 → +1882 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.7% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -8692 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 9.5 -107Model 47.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.1164 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedWon3-7Paper stake $138 · P/L $157Paper betAthletics +114Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $138Paper betAthletics +114Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $138+0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.2% · Market 42.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+140 → +140Logit -0.0222 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 50.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -142Model 49.9% · Market 59.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1422 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 79.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +252Model 20.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-306 → +2522 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 6.5 -360Model 68.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 31.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 85.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 14.4% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 7.5 -208Model 57.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 42.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-208 → +1732 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassOver 11.5 +189Model 25.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 74.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 90.6% · Market 95.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 9.4% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-2042 → +14642 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassOver 13.5 +351Model 14.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 85.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassColorado Rockies +140Model 46.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +140Model 41.0% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 11.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.0824 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-3PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 86.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 13.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-3PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 63.1% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-161 → +1462 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-3PassOver 8.5 -276Model 67.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 32.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-276 → +2292 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-3PassOver 14.5 +252Model 24.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-3PassOver 6.5 -660Model 81.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 18.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-3PassUnder 10.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 +114Model 48.3% · Market 47.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.5%-103 → +114Logit -0.1385 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-3PassOver 15.5 +373Model 18.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 81.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-3PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 41.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 -183Model 58.2% · Market 64.7%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1832 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-3PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 70.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 13.5 +198Model 29.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-3PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 26.4% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -381Model 73.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassTexas Rangers -121Model 54.4% · Market 54.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets -112Model 51.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-121 → -1126 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → +1054 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 38.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -18.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +119Model 61.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 28.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-131 → +1192 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassOver 11.5 +351Model 36.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 63.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -17.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 4.5 -564Model 90.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 37.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 9.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-564 → +4252 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 48.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -20.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +181Model 51.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 6.5 -191Model 77.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 34.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 22.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-191 → +1732 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 16.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -290Model 83.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 35.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -2902 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassOver 10.5 +240Model 44.7% · Market 29.4%Edge +15.2% · Full Kelly 21.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 55.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -19.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -2902 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 6.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -967Model 94.0% · Market 90.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -9672 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.0374 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMiami Marlins +146Model 42.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago Cubs -183Model 64.5% · Market 64.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1838 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-2PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -148Model 44.1% · Market 60.7%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1484 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-2PassUnder 8.5 -219Model 51.8% · Market 69.1%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +197Model 48.2% · Market 34.1%Edge +14.1% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-219 → +1972 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-2PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 61.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +296Model 38.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +13.1% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-2PassOver 11.5 +625Model 24.2% · Market 13.8%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 75.8% · Market 88.7%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+625 → -7882 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-2PassOver 3.5 -525Model 90.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 37.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 10.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-2PassUnder 4.5 +280Model 15.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -340Model 84.8% · Market 77.3%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 33.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-2PassOver 5.5 -183Model 75.0% · Market 64.7%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 25.0% · Market 39.7%Edge -14.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-183 → +1522 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-2PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 68.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +398Model 31.8% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3982 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassKansas City Royals -107Model 51.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.0786 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.0844 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-5PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 56.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-161 → +1402 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-5PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7192 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-5PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+218 → -2632 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-5PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 63.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +181Model 36.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-5PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-5PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 76.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +373Model 23.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-5PassOver 5.5 -360Model 78.6% · Market 78.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 21.4% · Market 25.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-5PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 39.0% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -148Model 61.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+134 → -1482 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-5PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.2% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1236 → +9452 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost2-3Paper stake $94 · P/L -$94Paper betCincinnati Reds +218Model 34.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $94Paper betCincinnati Reds +229Model 34.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $131-1.1%+218 → +229Logit -0.0496 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.1544 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 14.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 20.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 75.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +456Model 24.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-564 → +4562 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassOver 10.5 +313Model 32.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 67.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassOver 6.5 -148Model 67.7% · Market 60.2%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 32.3% · Market 43.2%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-148 → +1342 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 51.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +152Model 48.7% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-168 → +1522 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 24.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -228Model 75.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 61.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +229Model 38.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-276 → +2292 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassOver 3.5 -660Model 90.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassCleveland Guardians +109Model 46.0% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCleveland Guardians +119Model 45.1% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.2%+109 → +119Logit -0.0886 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassOver 8.5 +197Model 50.6% · Market 34.1%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 25.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +189Model 50.6% · Market 34.7%Edge +15.9% · Full Kelly 24.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%+197 → +189Logit 0.0232 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassOver 9.5 +296Model 40.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 59.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -18.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+296 → -3602 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -168Model 41.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -20.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → -1684 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassOver 3.5 -525Model 90.8% · Market 84.0%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 42.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 9.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 66.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -16.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +398Model 33.9% · Market 20.1%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3982 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 23.3% · Market 40.7%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -175Model 76.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1752 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassOver 4.5 -340Model 86.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 38.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +280Model 14.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 73.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +625Model 26.1% · Market 13.8%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-788 → +6252 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.0764 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassNew York Yankees -131Model 55.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays +119Model 45.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-131 → +1198 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 5.5 -161Model 71.6% · Market 61.7%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +134Model 28.4% · Market 42.7%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-161 → +1342 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 3.5 -489Model 88.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 30.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3982 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-9PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 56.3% · Market 70.6%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +208Model 43.7% · Market 32.6%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-229 → +2082 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-9PassUnder 10.5 -564Model 72.5% · Market 84.9%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +456Model 27.5% · Market 18.0%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-564 → +4562 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-9PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +152Model 51.6% · Market 40.2%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 19.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-8.6%+105 → +152Logit -0.3504 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-9PassOver 11.5 +685Model 20.4% · Market 12.7%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 79.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -8692 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-9PassUnder 4.5 +252Model 17.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -306Model 82.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 28.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 9.5 +331Model 33.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -404Model 66.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+331 → -4042 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 -112Model 49.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.1%-112 → +114Logit -0.2444 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassPhiladelphia Phillies +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMilwaukee Brewers -126Model 53.9% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+109 → -1266 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 55.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +165Model 45.0% · Market 38.7%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-183 → +1652 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6602 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 71.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +331Model 28.7% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.5% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.5% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+181 → -2182 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 64.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +240Model 35.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.0% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+331 → -4042 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 11.5 +529Model 21.4% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 78.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6602 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 35.6% · Market 44.7%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -142Model 64.4% · Market 58.7%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1422 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassPittsburgh Pirates -131Model 55.3% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPittsburgh Pirates -142Model 57.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.0%-131 → -142Logit 0.0818 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-112 → +1014 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 50.3% · Market 62.2%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +146Model 49.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-161 → +1462 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 9.5 +218Model 39.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 60.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+218 → -2632 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassOver 6.5 -154Model 68.5% · Market 60.7%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 20.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 31.5% · Market 42.7%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-154 → +1402 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.5% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 22.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7192 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 14.4% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.6% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 23.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 23.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -228Model 76.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 66.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +296Model 33.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-1PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 74.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +456Model 25.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-564 → +4562 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+109 → -1074 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles -121Model 54.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → -1216 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-4PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +129Model 52.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.1%+101 → +129Logit -0.2455 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-4PassOver 9.5 +188Model 42.8% · Market 34.7%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 57.2% · Market 67.6%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+188 → -2092 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 53.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Francisco Giants +129Model 47.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.2%+109 → +129Logit -0.1698 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.0784 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.3% · Market 47.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 54.0% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1312 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 68.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2762 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3512 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+756 → -9672 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 9.5 +173Model 38.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 61.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -2082 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 32.7% · Market 36.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -200Model 67.3% · Market 67.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+180 → -2002 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -5642 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+105 → +114Logit -0.0353 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 47.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-4PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 31.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -148Model 68.9% · Market 59.7%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 22.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+124 → -1482 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-4PassOver 10.5 +313Model 33.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 66.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-4PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 49.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +158Model 50.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 18.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1582 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-4PassUnder 9.5 -252Model 59.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +229Model 40.2% · Market 30.5%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-252 → +2292 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-4PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 74.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +490Model 25.7% · Market 16.9%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-4PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 14.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -404Model 85.8% · Market 80.2%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 28.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+331 → -4042 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-4PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 23.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -208Model 76.3% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 27.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -2082 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-4PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 23.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7192 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassDetroit Tigers -137Model 57.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassDetroit Tigers -175Model 65.4% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+5.8%-137 → -175Logit 0.2458 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.0785 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.4% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+625 → -8692 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 55.4% · Market 59.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1424 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 9.5 +189Model 34.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 65.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 10.5 +252Model 28.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 71.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 78.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 12.5 +529Model 16.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 83.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6602 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassOver 6.5 -191Model 64.2% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 35.8% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-191 → +1732 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-276 → +2292 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 23, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$10,233
Cumulative
+2.3%
Best day
+2.3%
Worst day
+2.3%
Settled bets
3

Cumulative bankroll return

+2.6%+1.9%+1.2%+0.4%-0.3%Sep 23Sep 24

Daily bankroll return

+2.3%-2.3%Sep 23Sep 24

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,233

+$233 · +2.3%

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Avg. policy Kelly
1.1%

Full Kelly benchmark $10,919 · tracked $232 on $322 settled paper stake · +72.1% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$10,330

+$330 · +3.3%

Bets
2
Record
2-0
Avg. policy Kelly
1.1%

Full Kelly benchmark $11,348 · tracked $327 on $228 settled paper stake · +143.6% ROI

Totals · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
16
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%