+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
165 games unified from 417 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-15.
Games165
Settled135
First edge-1.7%
Pregame edge-0.9%
Average CLV-2.9%
Totals CLV-2.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +119Model 44.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +134Model 41.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+119 → +134Logit -0.118 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 59.0% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-161 → -161Logit -0.021 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 41.4% · Market 43.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 58.6% · Market 60.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 78.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 21.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 13.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 69.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 77.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 65.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 34.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +119Model 48.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 43.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%+119 → +146Logit -0.204 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 50.0% · Market 47.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.5%+105 → +114Logit -0.060 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 25.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 20.6% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 37.1%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 59.9% · Market 66.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 44.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +159Model 40.4% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+114 → +159Logit -0.333 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 45.5% · Market 47.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 60.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 39.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 20.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 79.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 12.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 87.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 68.5% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 31.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 83.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 16.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassOver 12.5 +152Model 39.3% · Market 40.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -168Model 60.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 24.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 75.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassOver 8.5 -276Model 69.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 30.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 26.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 73.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -161Model 61.0% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +134Model 41.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.9%-116 → +109Logit -0.234 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 53.5% · Market 56.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 53.5% · Market 56.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-126 → -131Logit 0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 17.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 82.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 63.4% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 36.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 30.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 69.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 22.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 77.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 34.2% · Market 36.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.0%-116 → +119Logit -0.322 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 74.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 25.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 39.7% · Market 35.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 60.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 33.0% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 79.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 68.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 50.3% · Market 58.2%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 76.0% · Market 73.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 24.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -154Model 61.9% · Market 60.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -175Model 64.6% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-154 → -175Logit 0.128 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending10-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 51.0% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 56.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.0% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-3 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.7% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.8% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.2% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -137Model 57.7% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -142Model 59.5% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-137 → -142Logit 0.036 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.1% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 42.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 57.1% · Market 59.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 68.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 31.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -660Model 85.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +529Model 14.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 67.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 32.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 60.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 39.5% · Market 41.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.5% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +124Model 48.9% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +146Model 44.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+124 → +146Logit -0.163 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 77.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 22.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-1 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 35.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 64.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 47.9% · Market 60.2%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 86.6% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 16.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 13.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 57.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 42.1% · Market 34.6%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 29.6% · Market 38.7%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 70.4% · Market 64.7%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 72.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 27.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +101Model 47.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 45.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 48.7% · Market 46.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-107 → +119Logit -0.198 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 33.6% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 66.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 84.4% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.2% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.8% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 72.7% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 27.3% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 63.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 36.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 48.3% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +124Model 47.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.166 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 33.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.5% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.1% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.7% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.0% · Market 46.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 46.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +189Model 40.1% · Market 34.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+159 → +189Logit -0.173 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 54.7% · Market 65.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 54.7% · Market 65.1%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-191 → -183Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 27.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 72.9% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 61.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 38.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 69.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 30.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 62.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 88.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 12.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 92.2% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 75.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 24.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +140Model 47.0% · Market 41.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +173Model 43.3% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%+140 → +173Logit -0.212 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 47.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 21.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 27.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 72.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 57.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 42.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 22.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 77.5% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 64.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 35.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 13.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 70.4% · Market 63.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 29.6% · Market 40.2%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 47.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +189Model 37.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -228Model 67.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 51.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.9% · Market 46.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 67.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 32.6% · Market 38.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 29.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 70.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 85.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 80.6% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 19.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 73.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 26.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 18.5% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 62.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 38.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +159Model 41.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +198Model 37.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%+159 → +198Logit -0.219 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 51.1% · Market 60.7%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 48.9% · Market 41.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 6.7% · Market 9.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 93.3% · Market 93.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 33.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 66.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 34.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 65.8% · Market 60.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 24.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 75.6% · Market 71.5%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 81.8% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 18.2% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 42.1% · Market 35.6%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 57.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 89.5% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 10.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 72.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 28.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +105Model 46.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +129Model 43.1% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+105 → +129Logit -0.206 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 47.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 52.2% · Market 62.2%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 28.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 71.9% · Market 66.6%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 72.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 27.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 82.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 17.3% · Market 13.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 20.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 79.1% · Market 75.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 34.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 65.5% · Market 59.7%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 63.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 36.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 83.7% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 16.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 88.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 11.5% · Market 9.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 6.7%