Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

109 games unified from 286 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-14.

Games109
Settled89
First edge-1.0%
Pregame edge-1.7%
Average CLV-2.4%
Totals CLV-1.9%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.0404 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMiami Marlins +119Model 45.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassArizona Diamondbacks -137Model 57.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+119 → -1375 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-8PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 60.5% · Market 64.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +158Model 39.5% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1582 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-8PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.6% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +4902 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-8PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-8PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-8PassOver 11.5 +313Model 25.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-8PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 24.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+266 → -3222 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-8PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-8PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 42.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-5.6%-103 → +124Logit -0.2244 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-8PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 67.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +208Model 32.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-251 → +2082 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassLos Angeles Angels -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → -1075 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → -1074 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.0% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.0% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+625 → -7882 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassOver 11.5 +398Model 26.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 73.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 48.9% · Market 60.2%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +134Model 51.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-148 → +1342 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 13.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 30.4% · Market 39.7%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -183Model 69.6% · Market 64.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1832 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassOver 12.5 +529Model 21.3% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 78.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6602 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-6PassOver 5.5 -263Model 76.9% · Market 72.5%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 23.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassOver 10.5 +252Model 34.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 65.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-6PassOver 9.5 +197Model 41.1% · Market 34.1%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 58.9% · Market 69.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+197 → -2192 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassColorado Rockies +140Model 45.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +181Model 39.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.1%+140 → +181Logit -0.2575 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 11.5 -103Model 48.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +109Model 48.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.1165 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassOver 12.5 +146Model 38.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 61.4% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1612 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 +119Model 46.7% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.1047 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 79.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 15.5 +351Model 20.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3512 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 87.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 12.4% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassOver 13.5 +189Model 30.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 13.5 -228Model 69.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-7PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6602 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassOver 7.5 -404Model 74.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +331Model 25.2% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-7PassUnder 8.5 +240Model 31.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -290Model 68.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -2902 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-7PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 40.2% · Market 40.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 -175Model 59.8% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1752 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-7PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 74.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 14.5 +252Model 25.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-306 → +2522 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.1234 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSt. Louis Cardinals -137Model 58.3% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals -148Model 61.2% · Market 59.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%-137 → -148Logit 0.0775 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 9.5 +180Model 40.3% · Market 36.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 59.7% · Market 67.1%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+180 → -2002 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -5642 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 23.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 66.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2292 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -8692 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 47.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 49.8% · Market 56.8%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1262 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 6.5 -199Model 69.0% · Market 66.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 31.0% · Market 37.6%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-199 → +1662 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMinnesota Twins +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees -126Model 57.4% · Market 55.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+109 → -1265 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.4% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → -1034 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-3PassOver 9.5 +158Model 45.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 54.9% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+158 → -1682 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-3PassOver 7.5 -131Model 62.3% · Market 57.7%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 37.7% · Market 45.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-131 → +1242 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-3PassOver 5.5 -340Model 79.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 20.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-3PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 27.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -239Model 72.7% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+198 → -2392 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-3PassOver 11.5 +296Model 30.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 69.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+296 → -3602 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-3PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 75.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +373Model 24.7% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-3PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1236 → +8412 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-3PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7192 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-3PassOver 10.5 +198Model 38.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 61.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+198 → -2392 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 9.5 -121Model 52.1% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%-121 → -116Logit -0.0424 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassAtlanta Braves +114Model 46.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago Cubs -137Model 57.5% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1375 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassOver 12.5 +240Model 20.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 79.7% · Market 74.4%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -2902 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -161Model 49.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1614 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 74.5% · Market 68.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +181Model 25.5% · Market 35.6%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 7.5 -218Model 57.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 42.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 31.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -360Model 68.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+296 → -3602 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 13.5 -404Model 85.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 26.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 13.5 +331Model 14.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassOver 10.5 +134Model 33.2% · Market 43.7%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 66.8% · Market 60.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+134 → -1482 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 90.6% · Market 95.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 9.4% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-2042 → +14642 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 85.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 14.3% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassBaltimore Orioles +119Model 48.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles +124Model 45.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.0415 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.0783 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 65.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%-191 → -183Logit -0.0212 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.3% · Market 46.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.0%+101 → +119Logit -0.1206 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +7562 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 5.5 -322Model 72.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 27.5% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 12.5 +425Model 16.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 83.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 71.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +208Model 28.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-251 → +2082 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 35.7% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -218Model 64.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+181 → -2182 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassToronto Blue Jays -126Model 55.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassDetroit Tigers +119Model 44.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-126 → +1194 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → -1034 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 16.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -458Model 84.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-5PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.4% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-788 → +5742 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 34.1% · Market 40.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -168Model 65.9% · Market 63.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1682 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-5PassOver 10.5 +266Model 30.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 69.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+266 → -3222 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-5PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 77.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +425Model 22.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-5PassOver 5.5 -251Model 73.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 26.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-251 → +2082 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 53.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +134Model 46.7% · Market 43.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-148 → +1342 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 63.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +198Model 36.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassChicago White Sox +105Model 46.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox +146Model 47.2% · Market 40.6%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-8.1%+105 → +146Logit -0.3305 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 83.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +529Model 16.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 14.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -564Model 86.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -5642 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassOver 4.5 -360Model 79.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 20.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +124Model 46.6% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.0414 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 76.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +373Model 23.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassOver 5.5 -191Model 67.6% · Market 65.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 32.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-191 → +1592 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassOver 8.5 +173Model 38.7% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -191Model 61.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -1912 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 70.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +266Model 29.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassCincinnati Reds +146Model 45.7% · Market 40.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +181Model 36.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-5.1%+146 → +181Logit -0.2155 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1074 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 76.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +529Model 23.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 11.5 +398Model 29.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 70.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 6.5 -175Model 71.9% · Market 63.6%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1462 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 9.5 +197Model 44.1% · Market 34.1%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 15.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 55.9% · Market 69.1%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+197 → -2192 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -489Model 87.4% · Market 83.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 25.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 62.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +266Model 37.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 46.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → -1424 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 5.5 -251Model 78.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 21.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-251 → +2082 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 27.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-788 → +6252 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
10
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%