+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
35 games unified from 138 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-13.
Games35
Settled0
First edge-0.3%
Pregame edge+0.7%
Average CLV-0.7%
Totals CLV-1.2%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%+119 → +101Logit 0.164 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -131Model 55.1% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -142Model 55.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -131Model 56.8% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-142 → -131Logit -0.081 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 52.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +124Model 50.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.2%+124 → +109Logit 0.129 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 44.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -154Model 60.0% · Market 60.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -154 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -116Model 52.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +101Model 52.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +105Model 54.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -148Model 58.9% · Market 59.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +159Model 39.6% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +159 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +134Model 42.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 59.6% · Market 57.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +114Model 48.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +124Model 47.2% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+114 → +124Logit -0.084 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 43.8% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 42.1% · Market 43.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+114 → +129Logit -0.124 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-116 → -103Logit -0.119 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -168Model 60.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -175Model 62.0% · Market 63.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-168 → -175Logit 0.041 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -116Model 56.7% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -131Model 58.7% · Market 56.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-116 → -131Logit 0.122 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -121Model 52.6% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +109Model 47.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -154Model 60.4% · Market 60.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +152Model 39.2% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +152 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-116 → -103Logit -0.119 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -148Model 59.8% · Market 59.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -183Model 66.0% · Market 64.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.0%-148 → -183Logit 0.212 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%