+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
166 games unified from 425 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-12.
Games166
Settled136
First edge-1.5%
Pregame edge-1.2%
Average CLV-1.0%
Totals CLV-1.8%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +129Model 48.9% · Market 43.7%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +129Model 45.2% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 52.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-112 → -116Logit 0.035 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 78.3% · Market 74.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 21.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 65.2% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 34.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 22.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 77.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 59.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 40.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 30.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 70.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 13.6% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 86.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 8.5 -155Model 51.5% · Market 61.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 48.5% · Market 42.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 26.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 73.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 13.5 -404Model 84.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 15.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.1% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 8.9% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -121Model 55.7% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -131Model 59.5% · Market 56.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-121 → -131Logit 0.079 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 39.4% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 39.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+152 → +158Logit -0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 19.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 42.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 57.1% · Market 58.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 32.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 67.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +119Model 47.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +119 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 37.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 49.4% · Market 53.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.3% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +124 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.0% · Market 34.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 67.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -112Model 51.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 71.0% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 29.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 64.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 35.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 78.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 21.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 17.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 83.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 46.8% · Market 45.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 53.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 83.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 64.5% · Market 63.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 35.5% · Market 39.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 27.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 72.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 40.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +181Model 33.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+140 → +181Logit -0.257 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 41.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 58.5% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-13 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 41.0% · Market 41.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 59.0% · Market 62.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 30.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 27.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 21.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 78.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-13 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 77.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-13 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 65.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +124Model 42.6% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -148Model 58.7% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -148 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 64.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 35.5% · Market 34.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +197 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 64.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 35.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 54.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 29.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -107Model 48.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -107Model 52.7% · Market 51.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.4% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.6% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.4% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 59.2% · Market 63.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 21.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 79.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +189Model 48.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 21.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +140Model 43.9% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +7.1%+189 → +140Logit 0.300 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.2% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 44.8% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 35.0% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 65.0% · Market 67.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 64.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 83.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 16.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -183Model 63.3% · Market 64.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +181Model 35.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +181 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 54.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 45.1% · Market 42.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 79.7% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 20.3% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.9% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 27.1% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 61.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 38.3% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 11.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 88.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 24.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 75.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 69.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 30.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 62.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 37.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.3% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.7% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +119Model 46.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +152Model 43.7% · Market 39.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%+119 → +152Logit -0.245 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 61.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 38.2% · Market 36.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.1% · Market 47.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+109 → +114Logit -0.023 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 81.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -131Model 57.4% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -131Model 55.5% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-131 → -131Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 63.8% · Market 58.7%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 31.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 68.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 88.8% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 11.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 80.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 18.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 60.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 39.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.8% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 25.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 74.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 74.1% · Market 68.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 25.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 53.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 46.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +119Model 46.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -131Model 57.2% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.4% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 30.6% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 69.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 45.2% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.5%-103 → +119Logit -0.182 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.9% · Market 64.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 37.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -116Model 53.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -126Model 55.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-116 → -126Logit 0.083 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 45.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+101 → +140Logit -0.326 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 92.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 7.9% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 24.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 76.0% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 87.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 12.2% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -208Model 70.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +173Model 29.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 7.5 -228Model 61.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 38.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 20.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 79.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 17.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 82.3% · Market 79.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -381Model 72.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 27.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 37.7% · Market 44.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 62.3% · Market 59.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +146Model 39.5% · Market 40.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -161Model 61.1% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 58.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 41.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 64.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 35.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 70.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 29.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 72.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 27.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 40.5% · Market 46.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.7%+109 → +119Logit -0.066 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 78.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 21.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -142Model 59.6% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -161Model 62.4% · Market 61.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-142 → -161Logit 0.126 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.9% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.1% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 59.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 40.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 66.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 34.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 73.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 26.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 41.7% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 58.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 30.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 21.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%