-$211 · -2.1%
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.7%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,130 · tracked -$209 on $496 settled paper stake · -42.1% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
184 games unified from 439 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-11.
Games184
Settled134
First edge-0.9%
Pregame edge-1.5%
Average CLV-0.5%
Totals CLV-0.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +114Model 47.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +129Model 44.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+114 → +129Logit -0.124 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 53.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 46.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 65.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 34.4% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 36.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 63.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.5% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.7% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +134Model 50.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +134Model 43.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +109Model 46.9% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -112 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +398Model 31.8% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -489Model 68.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +240Model 42.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 19.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -290Model 57.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 24.3% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 75.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 13.5 +252Model 14.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -322Model 85.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 39.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 +180Model 50.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +14.4% · Full Kelly 23.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -200Model 49.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -17.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 52.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +119Model 60.6% · Market 46.2%Edge +14.4% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -168Model 74.9% · Market 62.7%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +140Model 25.1% · Market 41.7%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 9.7% · Market 5.3%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 90.3% · Market 96.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1775 → -2580 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -228Model 80.0% · Market 69.5%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 34.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +181Model 20.0% · Market 35.6%Edge -15.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 14.7% · Market 8.5%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 85.3% · Market 93.5%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -110Model 54.5% · Market 52.4%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10 +100Model 54.5% · Market 50.0%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%-110 → +100Logit -0.095 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -115Model 52.1% · Market 53.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -115Model 52.1% · Market 53.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won1-9Paper stake $154 · P/L $133 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 56.6% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $154 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 56.6% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $154 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 16.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 54.5% · Market 62.7%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 45.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 82.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 17.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 69.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 30.2% · Market 37.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 77.2% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 22.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.6% · Market 9.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 63.2% · Market 59.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -142 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 66.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 34.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-9 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 12.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 87.3% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -112Model 50.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -112 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 46.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+105 → +119Logit -0.125 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 34.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 36.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 63.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 +100Model 50.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 +100Model 50.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -126Model 51.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 32.2% · Market 39.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 67.8% · Market 64.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 61.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 39.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 32.3% · Market 28.4%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.2% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 75.4% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 24.6% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 48.9% · Market 44.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 51.1% · Market 59.2%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 24.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 75.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -110Model 50.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -110Model 50.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending0-20 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +146Model 40.0% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +166Model 37.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+146 → +166Logit -0.129 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending0-20 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 60.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 39.2% · Market 36.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.1% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-20 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 80.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.6% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 +100Model 49.6% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%-105 → +100Logit -0.049 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost5-6Paper stake $142 · P/L -$142 | Paper betPhiladelphia Phillies +152Model 43.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142 | Paper betPhiladelphia Phillies +152Model 43.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142 | +0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -137Model 48.4% · Market 58.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 56.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +159Model 43.7% · Market 38.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 72.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 27.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 20.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 79.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 71.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 28.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 66.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 33.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +146Model 43.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros +152Model 41.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+146 → +152Logit -0.040 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 53.8% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 46.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 73.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 65.6% · Market 64.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 34.4% · Market 38.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 29.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 70.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 63.7% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 36.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -199Model 63.1% · Market 66.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +173Model 36.3% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +173 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 42.5% · Market 39.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 57.5% · Market 64.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 29.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 70.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 77.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 22.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 35.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 64.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.9% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 40.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 60.0% · Market 57.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 78.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 72.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 27.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.5% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost6-2Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +166Model 42.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +166Model 42.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+166 → +166Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 52.5% · Market 61.7%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 50.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.0%-155 → -161Logit -0.002 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 69.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 31.0% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 84.4% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.6% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 74.4% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 25.6% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 23.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 37.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 62.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 33.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 66.6% · Market 63.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -110Model 50.2% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -110Model 50.2% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -131Model 54.3% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -137Model 57.0% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-131 → -137Logit 0.045 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 64.1% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 35.9% · Market 35.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 34.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 8.5 -104Model 48.9% · Market 51.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 54.2% · Market 59.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.5% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -154Model 58.8% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -131Model 57.9% · Market 56.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.9%-154 → -131Logit -0.162 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 56.1% · Market 56.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 43.9% · Market 46.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.4% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.6% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 68.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.2% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.4% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -106Model 51.7% · Market 51.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -106Model 51.7% · Market 51.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-106 → -106Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -142Model 57.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 42.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 86.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 79.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 34.0% · Market 29.4%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 66.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 69.3% · Market 65.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 30.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 59.4% · Market 67.6%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 40.6% · Market 35.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 50.6% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.6%+101 → +124Logit -0.185 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.9% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -102Model 49.8% · Market 50.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -102Model 49.8% · Market 50.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-102 → -102Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -161Model 60.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -183Model 64.4% · Market 64.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-161 → -183Logit 0.128 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 58.5% · Market 66.1%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 58.5% · Market 65.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-191 → -191Logit -0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-6 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 27.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 73.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 77.3% · Market 76.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 22.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 30.0% · Market 36.6%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 78.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 21.7% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.5% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 65.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 34.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -131Model 57.6% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +159Model 36.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +159 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.5%-105 → +101Logit -0.059 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 57.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 42.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 70.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 29.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 72.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 27.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 77.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 22.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.2% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 35.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 64.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.8% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 59.7% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 40.3% · Market 44.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 11, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,791
- Cumulative
- -2.1%
- Best day
- -2.1%
- Worst day
- -2.1%
- Settled bets
- 3
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$211 · -2.1%
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.7%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,130 · tracked -$209 on $496 settled paper stake · -42.1% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%