Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

57 games unified from 135 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-10.

Games57
Settled44
First edge-1.1%
Pregame edge-1.8%
Average CLV-0.9%
Totals CLV-0.8%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassChicago White Sox -121Model 55.1% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox -115Model 56.2% · Market 53.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.3%-121 → -115Logit -0.0515 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 50.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.2%-116 → -103Logit -0.0085 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-0PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 33.0% · Market 39.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -175Model 67.0% · Market 64.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+158 → -1752 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-0PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-0PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-0PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.4% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-0PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 25.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -276Model 74.8% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2762 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-0PassOver 9.5 +181Model 38.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 62.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+181 → -2182 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-0PassOver 8.5 +124Model 47.9% · Market 45.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 52.1% · Market 58.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+124 → -1372 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-0PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.9% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -8692 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1014 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassColorado Rockies +218Model 36.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +230Model 33.1% · Market 30.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.2%+218 → +230Logit -0.0544 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-10PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-10PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-10PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3982 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-10PassOver 11.5 +280Model 24.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 75.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-10PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 32.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -239Model 67.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+198 → -2392 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-10PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+841 → -10872 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-10PassOver 9.5 +152Model 38.7% · Market 40.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 61.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1682 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-10PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-10PassOver 7.5 -148Model 56.3% · Market 59.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 43.7% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-148 → +1342 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 9 -120Model 52.8% · Market 54.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9 -120Model 52.8% · Market 54.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-120 → -120Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassTexas Rangers +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners -120Model 52.7% · Market 54.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+109 → -1204 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.1214 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassOver 5.5 -175Model 64.8% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +165Model 35.2% · Market 39.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1652 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassOver 8.5 +197Model 35.5% · Market 34.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -218Model 64.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+197 → -2182 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassOver 7.5 +146Model 43.4% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -154Model 56.6% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1542 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 22.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -340Model 77.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+266 → -3402 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no betPush3-4PassOver 7 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7 -139Model 50.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1392 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassOver 10.5 +425Model 20.6% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 79.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -525Model 84.4% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 85.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +625Model 14.6% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-788 → +6252 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 73.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +296Model 26.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.0816 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassHouston Astros +166Model 43.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPhiladelphia Phillies -190Model 63.8% · Market 65.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+166 → -1905 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassOver 7.5 -148Model 54.5% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -148Model 54.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%-148 → -148Logit 0.0202 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 63.2% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 63.2% · Market 62.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%-168 → -161Logit -0.0212 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 5.5 -360Model 73.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 26.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 77.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +280Model 22.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 12.5 +373Model 17.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 82.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 6.5 -239Model 66.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 34.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 16.0% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -7192 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.0843 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassAtlanta Braves -121Model 53.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays +105Model 47.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-121 → +1053 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 38.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 38.9% · Market 44.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+124 → +124Logit -0.0212 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 9.5 +158Model 43.6% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 56.4% · Market 63.6%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+158 → -1752 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 21.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -340Model 78.7% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 12.5 +398Model 23.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 76.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.2% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1236 → +9452 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 6.5 -239Model 71.7% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 28.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-719 → +5742 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 10.5 +208Model 36.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 63.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+208 → -2512 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
5
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%