-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,892 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
190 games unified from 501 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-09.
Games190
Settled144
First edge-1.1%
Pregame edge-1.4%
Average CLV-0.2%
Totals CLV-0.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +218Model 39.3% · Market 31.4%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +230Model 35.6% · Market 30.3%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%+218 → +230Logit -0.054 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-14 | PassUnder 8.5 -104Model 51.2% · Market 51.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 52.3% · Market 55.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.3%-104 → -121Logit 0.172 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.2% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 37.8% · Market 38.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-14 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-14 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.5% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.5% · Market 57.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 25.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 74.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -142Model 58.9% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -133Model 57.2% · Market 57.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.6%-142 → -133Logit -0.066 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -104Model 49.9% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 62.1% · Market 69.6%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 37.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.9% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 66.9% · Market 64.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 33.1% · Market 39.7%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 47.8% · Market 43.2%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 52.2% · Market 60.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 74.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 25.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 31.3% · Market 27.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 68.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 15.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.3%+101 → +100Logit 0.010 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 44.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 55.8% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 70.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 29.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 38.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 61.6% · Market 61.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.0% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.0% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 62.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 37.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 27.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 72.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 76.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 23.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 21.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 79.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -137Model 55.7% · Market 57.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +115Model 45.8% · Market 46.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +115 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 24.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -106Model 49.7% · Market 51.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 43.3% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.3%-106 → +140Logit -0.373 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.2% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.3% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 67.7% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 19.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 80.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +226Model 32.1% · Market 31.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -252Model 67.9% · Market 72.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+226 → -252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 61.0% · Market 60.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 39.0% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.7% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.3% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -105 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -126Model 54.9% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +105 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -114Model 51.1% · Market 53.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 52.4% · Market 55.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-114 → -121Logit 0.080 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 68.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 62.3% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 37.7% · Market 37.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -115Model 51.1% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -115Model 51.1% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +173Model 35.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +200Model 32.4% · Market 33.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.3%+173 → +200Logit -0.145 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 31.2% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 68.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.5% · Market 42.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -155Model 66.5% · Market 61.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 50.0% · Market 60.2%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 85.2% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 14.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.6% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.4% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.4% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 74.3% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 25.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 57.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 42.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -102Model 52.4% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +100Model 52.0% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-102 → +100Logit -0.020 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +115Model 48.0% · Market 46.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +115Model 48.0% · Market 46.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+115 → +115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -108Model 52.3% · Market 51.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -108Model 52.3% · Market 51.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-108 → -108Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 39.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +170Model 36.4% · Market 37.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+166 → +170Logit -0.024 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 +105Model 51.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +100Model 50.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%+105 → +100Logit 0.049 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 79.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 20.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.3% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.7% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 45.1% · Market 48.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+105 → +109Logit -0.019 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 18.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 81.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 11.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 88.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 45.0% · Market 44.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 55.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 38.3% · Market 41.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 61.7% · Market 62.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 75.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 24.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 37.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 62.4% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 69.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 30.1% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 72.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 27.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +134Model 42.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -154Model 59.8% · Market 60.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 50.9% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 54.6% · Market 54.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 45.4% · Market 48.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 29.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 70.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 17.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 83.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 64.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 35.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 53.3% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 46.7% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 35.5% · Market 38.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 64.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -118Model 51.6% · Market 54.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -118Model 51.6% · Market 54.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-118 → -118Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -126Model 61.5% · Market 55.8%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -125Model 58.3% · Market 55.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.2%-126 → -125Logit -0.008 | 7 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 51.5% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 56.3% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 43.7% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 19.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 80.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 38.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 61.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won15-14 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 31.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 68.1% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won15-14 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.9% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 24.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 67.5% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 32.5% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won15-14 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 15.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -106Model 51.2% · Market 51.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -106Model 51.2% · Market 51.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-106 → -106Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -102Model 48.6% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -102 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+105 → -107Logit 0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.1% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 59.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.6% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 72.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 27.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 22.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 77.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 42.3% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 57.7% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 64.4% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 35.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 13.5 +529Model 16.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -660Model 83.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 77.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.2% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +140Model 43.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +154Model 40.5% · Market 39.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.3%+140 → +154Logit -0.095 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 50.2% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 49.8% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 70.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 29.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 67.3% · Market 62.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 32.7% · Market 40.7%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 73.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 26.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 12.3% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 87.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 62.1% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 37.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 80.5% · Market 77.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 19.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 85.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 15.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 18.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 81.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 51.7% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 +100Model 51.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%-105 → +100Logit -0.049 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -114Model 51.6% · Market 53.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -114Model 51.6% · Market 53.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-114 → -114Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost2-3Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betTexas Rangers +125Model 50.6% · Market 44.4%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betTexas Rangers +130Model 50.6% · Market 43.5%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | -1.0%+125 → +130Logit -0.039 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -115Model 52.0% · Market 53.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.2% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-115 → -110Logit -0.045 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 50.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.1% · Market 56.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -131 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 44.2% · Market 48.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.6%+114 → +109Logit 0.064 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 34.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 65.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 72.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 36.2% · Market 36.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -200Model 63.8% · Market 67.1%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 28.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +100Model 49.1% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.7%-103 → +100Logit -0.030 | 8 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 +100Model 50.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 50.1% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.4%+100 → -110Logit 0.095 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.9% · Market 38.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.1% · Market 64.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 51.2% · Market 56.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 43.4% · Market 47.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 56.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +152Model 47.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +135Model 44.9% · Market 42.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+152 → +135Logit 0.119 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 50.2% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 49.8% · Market 59.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 7.5 -200Model 57.5% · Market 67.1%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +180Model 42.5% · Market 36.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 14.6% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 85.4% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 33.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 66.8% · Market 61.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 31.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 68.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 76.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 24.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.5% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.5% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.5% · Market 7.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 74.6% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 25.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 +100Model 51.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +100Model 51.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -126Model 54.2% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -125Model 58.4% · Market 55.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.2%-126 → -125Logit -0.008 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -108Model 51.0% · Market 51.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%-108 → -103Logit -0.047 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 63.0% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 37.0% · Market 41.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 25.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 74.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 33.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 66.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.5% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 54.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 45.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 23.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 77.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.2% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 15.8% · Market 14.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 30.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 69.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 9, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,800
- Cumulative
- -2.0%
- Best day
- -2.0%
- Worst day
- -2.0%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,740 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%