-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,910 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
172 games unified from 430 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-08.
Games172
Settled86
First edge-1.4%
Pregame edge-1.2%
Average CLV-1.3%
Totals CLV-1.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 51.5% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%-105 → -110Logit 0.046 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betCincinnati Reds +260Model 34.6% · Market 27.8%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +260Model 34.6% · Market 27.8%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+260 → +260Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 19.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 80.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 37.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 62.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 48.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+105 → +109Logit -0.019 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 67.1% · Market 65.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 32.9% · Market 37.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 26.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 73.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 29.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 70.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 51.6% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 57.4% · Market 56.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.5%-121 → -126Logit 0.060 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 84.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 15.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -110 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 18.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 63.2% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 36.8% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 30.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 34.0% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 66.0% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 77.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 22.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 53.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 46.8% · Market 45.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -102Model 48.3% · Market 50.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.1% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-102 → -110 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 44.4% · Market 38.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +155Model 40.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+159 → +155Logit 0.026 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.5%-116 → +119Logit -0.301 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 44.4% · Market 49.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 55.6% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -116 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.4% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 63.9% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 36.1% · Market 35.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +119Model 49.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -125Model 53.8% · Market 55.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -125 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-5 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.1% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.9% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 64.1% · Market 69.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 35.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 26.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 73.2% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-5 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 29.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 70.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-5 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 65.2% · Market 64.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 34.8% · Market 39.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 45.8% · Market 43.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.5%-103 → +134Logit -0.303 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 52.0% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.2% · Market 51.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-110 → -105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +129Model 47.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +150Model 45.7% · Market 40.0%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.7%+129 → +150Logit -0.151 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 49.6% · Market 59.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 50.4% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 68.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 31.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 32.9% · Market 41.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 67.1% · Market 62.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 14.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 85.5% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 23.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 74.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 25.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.6% · Market 7.5%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 75.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 24.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.6% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 57.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 42.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -105Model 51.9% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -105 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 +100Model 52.1% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -118Model 52.2% · Market 54.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%+100 → -118Logit 0.166 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.2% · Market 94.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.8% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 50.9% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 49.1% · Market 58.2%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 75.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 24.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -168Model 67.5% · Market 63.2%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +152Model 32.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 80.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 19.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 56.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 43.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 85.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 14.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 14.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 39.1% · Market 47.3%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 75.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 24.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 67.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 32.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 46.2% · Market 46.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -143Model 59.5% · Market 58.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -143 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 57.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 42.5% · Market 44.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 79.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.6% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 39.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 60.2% · Market 63.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 33.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost3-4Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betChicago Cubs +170Model 43.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betChicago Cubs +170Model 43.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+170 → +170Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | Push3-4 | PassUnder 7 +100Model 48.2% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7 +110Model 37.9% · Market 47.6%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%+100 → +110Logit -0.095 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 69.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 30.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 74.3% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 25.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 84.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 15.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 66.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 33.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 62.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 37.3% · Market 31.4%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 76.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 23.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 47.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 52.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.6% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 21.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 48.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -112Model 54.9% · Market 52.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -118Model 52.8% · Market 54.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.3%-112 → -118Logit 0.052 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 47.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 47.9% · Market 43.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+134 → +134Logit 0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 65.6% · Market 62.2%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 34.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 82.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 17.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 79.2% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 20.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 28.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 71.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 63.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 36.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 28.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 72.0% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 16.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 83.8% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 88.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.6% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +208Model 38.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +275Model 33.2% · Market 26.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.8%+208 → +275Logit -0.279 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 31.3% · Market 38.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 68.7% · Market 65.1%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.6% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 25.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 74.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 59.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 79.4% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.6% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.2% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 66.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 33.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 50.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.2%+109 → +134Logit -0.168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +124Model 42.5% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -139Model 59.2% · Market 58.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -139 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 55.3% · Market 43.7%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 22.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 44.7% · Market 59.7%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 11.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 88.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 30.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 61.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 38.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 7.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 92.4% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 32.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 30.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 69.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 79.9% · Market 72.5%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 26.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 20.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 75.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 24.8% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 73.1% · Market 64.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 26.9% · Market 39.2%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 45.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +9.8% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 54.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -126Model 55.5% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -133Model 58.4% · Market 57.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.3%-126 → -133Logit 0.054 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.8% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 30.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 21.0% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.1% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.4% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.6% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.8% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.6% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.6% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -121Model 53.7% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -115Model 54.3% · Market 53.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%-121 → -115Logit -0.051 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -102Model 50.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 51.1% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.7%-102 → -105Logit 0.029 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 44.5% · Market 49.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+105 → +105Logit 0.019 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.3% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.4% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 72.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 27.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 36.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 64.0% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 71.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 28.2% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +119Model 45.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -139Model 57.6% · Market 58.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -139 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.4% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 20.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 31.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 68.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.4% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 60.2% · Market 60.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 39.8% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 23.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 33.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 66.8% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.5% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 57.5% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -110Model 50.3% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -110 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +100Model 51.1% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.3%+101 → +100Logit 0.010 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 41.9% · Market 47.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 58.1% · Market 55.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 59.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 40.5% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 49.5% · Market 56.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.4%-112 → -126Logit 0.137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 26.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.2% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 8, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,800
- Cumulative
- -2.0%
- Best day
- -2.0%
- Worst day
- -2.0%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,910 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 6.7%