+$346 · +3.5%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,012 · tracked $346 on $200 settled paper stake · +173.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
121 games unified from 311 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-07.
Games121
Settled100
First edge-1.3%
Pregame edge-1.1%
Average CLV-1.9%
Totals CLV-1.7%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won5-6Paper stake $200 · P/L $346 | Paper betAthletics +173Model 44.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betAthletics +173Model 44.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 51.1% · Market 57.8%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%-116 → -137Logit 0.167 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 24.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.9% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.3% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.7% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.0% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +134Model 41.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +152Model 39.5% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+134 → +152Logit -0.126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -112 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 48.4% · Market 45.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 51.6% · Market 59.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 34.0% · Market 40.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 66.0% · Market 63.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 63.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 36.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.7% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 84.1% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 15.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 79.5% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 20.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 72.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 27.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 71.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 17.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +109Model 47.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+119 → +105Logit 0.125 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 25.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 74.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 49.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -131 | 7 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 48.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 38.7% · Market 35.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.5%+129 → +188Logit -0.358 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 69.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 30.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 68.2% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 31.8% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.7% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 81.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 19.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 18.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 81.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +134Model 44.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +166Model 39.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+134 → +166Logit -0.215 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.3% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 31.4% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 31.4% · Market 37.7%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+173 → +166Logit 0.024 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 51.1% · Market 46.8%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +119Logit -0.044 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 74.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 25.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 60.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 39.1% · Market 35.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 19.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 80.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 14.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 85.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 69.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 30.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 81.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 18.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -121Model 56.5% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -121Model 54.8% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-121 → -121Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 36.6% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 63.4% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 53.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 34.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 17.8% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 82.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.3% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 77.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 22.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 30.0% · Market 29.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 70.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -137Model 57.0% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -126Model 54.5% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-137 → -126Logit -0.084 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 58.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 41.7% · Market 44.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.9% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 73.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 26.1% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 34.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 66.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.3% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.7% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 69.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 30.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -107Model 48.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 52.5% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.081 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 35.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 64.4% · Market 62.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 22.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 77.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 72.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 27.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.2% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 47.7% · Market 44.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 52.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 16.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 83.8% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 77.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 22.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 70.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 29.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 59.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 40.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-107 → +114Logit -0.199 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 50.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +119 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 39.4% · Market 31.0%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +250Model 39.4% · Market 29.0%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+229 → +250Logit -0.097 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 49.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -12.0%-107 → +158Logit -0.485 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 19.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 80.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 75.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 25.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 75.8% · Market 69.5%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 24.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -1236Model 85.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +945Model 14.2% · Market 9.6%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 31.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 68.2% · Market 60.6%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 22.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 14.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 90.4% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 27.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 67.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 32.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 40.0% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 39.3% · Market 40.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+140 → +146Logit -0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 36.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 63.1% · Market 59.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 45.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 54.1% · Market 63.7%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 74.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 25.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 39.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 60.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 69.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 30.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 88.4% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 11.6% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.5% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 26.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 73.5% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 80.2% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 19.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -126Model 56.5% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -142Model 58.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%-126 → -142Logit 0.120 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 69.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 30.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 37.4% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 62.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 55.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +129Model 43.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +152Model 44.0% · Market 39.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+129 → +152Logit -0.164 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 54.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 29.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 35.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 64.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 7, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,346
- Cumulative
- +3.5%
- Best day
- +3.5%
- Worst day
- +3.5%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$346 · +3.5%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,012 · tracked $346 on $200 settled paper stake · +173.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 11
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%