+$238 · +2.4%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $11,410 · tracked $238 on $200 settled paper stake · +119.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
163 games unified from 427 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-06.
Games163
Settled134
First edge-1.3%
Pregame edge-1.2%
Average CLV-1.4%
Totals CLV-2.6%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +181Model 41.1% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 36.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%+181 → +159Logit 0.129 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 49.8% · Market 45.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 49.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+124 → +124Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 67.4% · Market 64.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 32.6% · Market 39.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 12.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 29.5% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 70.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 15.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 85.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 37.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 62.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 18.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 73.6% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 26.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 19.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 80.5% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -142Model 56.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +124Model 42.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +124 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.4% · Market 61.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-161 → -161Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 78.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 21.7% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.8% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.2% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 65.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 34.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 59.2% · Market 60.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 73.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 27.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 22.6% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 77.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +173Model 40.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +166Model 35.9% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+173 → +166Logit 0.041 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 73.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 26.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 54.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 45.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 65.1% · Market 59.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 34.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 70.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 29.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 64.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 35.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 22.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 77.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 11.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.5% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.2%+109 → +119Logit -0.088 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 46.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 83.4% · Market 79.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 16.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 21.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 78.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -191Model 73.0% · Market 65.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 27.0% · Market 38.6%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 70.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 29.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 11.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 54.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 45.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 35.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 64.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 -103Model 48.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 48.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 54.1% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 9.5 -183Model 57.8% · Market 64.7%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 42.2% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 18.4% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 81.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 73.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 81.5% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +351Model 18.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 71.3% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 28.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 67.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 33.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 5.5 -967Model 86.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +756Model 13.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 14.5 +252Model 23.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 63.6% · Market 62.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 36.4% · Market 41.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 26.9% · Market 40.2%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 73.1% · Market 64.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 26.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 55.4% · Market 43.2%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 44.6% · Market 59.7%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 88.2% · Market 82.1%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 33.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 11.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 54.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -15.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 45.4% · Market 34.6%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 38.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 61.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -15.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 79.8% · Market 72.5%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 20.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 69.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 30.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 7.7% · Market 14.8%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 92.3% · Market 87.8%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 37.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 51.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+101 → -107Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending3-2 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 39.4% · Market 46.8%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +119Logit -0.160 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 28.7% · Market 36.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 71.3% · Market 67.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 36.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 63.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 28.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 71.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 21.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 78.3% · Market 75.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 43.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 56.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.6% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 87.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 12.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -107Model 51.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -121Model 53.0% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%-107 → -121Logit 0.123 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 30.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 69.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 85.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 14.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 58.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 41.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 14.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 85.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 8.5 -154Model 50.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 49.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 74.1% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 25.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 79.3% · Market 74.4%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 19.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 20.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 14.5 +456Model 11.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -609Model 88.5% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 10.5 -103Model 47.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.7% · Market 42.2%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.5%-103 → +140Logit -0.344 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 49.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.2%+124 → +109Logit 0.129 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +119Model 42.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +140Model 46.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+119 → +140Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 16.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 83.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 53.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +124 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +166Model 45.3% · Market 37.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 54.7% · Market 65.6%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 11.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 88.9% · Market 84.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 26.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 71.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 29.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.7% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 64.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 35.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 72.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 27.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets -142Model 56.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +140Model 43.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +140 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -265Model 69.4% · Market 73.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.6% · Market 30.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-265 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 33.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 66.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 13.5 +625Model 12.9% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -788Model 87.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 37.2% · Market 37.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.8% · Market 66.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.8% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won3-10Paper stake $200 · P/L $238 | Paper betMiami Marlins +119Model 52.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +119Model 52.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 34.2% · Market 39.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 65.8% · Market 64.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.4% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 63.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 36.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 16.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 84.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.5% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 27.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 72.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 51.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 48.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.9%-116 → +109Logit -0.234 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 41.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 40.2% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+166 → +146Logit 0.129 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 31.4% · Market 43.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 68.6% · Market 60.2%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 85.6% · Market 79.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 30.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 14.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 49.8% · Market 39.2%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 18.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 50.2% · Market 64.2%Edge -13.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 39.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 60.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 9.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 90.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 33.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 74.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 25.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 66.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 33.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 23.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 76.1% · Market 68.6%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 24.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -107Model 52.2% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 36.2% · Market 30.5%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +238Model 36.2% · Market 30.0%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+229 → +238Logit -0.026 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 46.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -12.5%-107 → +158Logit -0.506 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 73.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 26.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 70.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 29.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 65.4% · Market 61.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 34.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.7% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 77.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 22.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 17.5% · Market 13.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 82.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 53.5% · Market 50.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -107Model 53.1% · Market 51.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 56.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.8% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +129Model 45.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 43.5% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+129 → +124Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassOver 10.5 +188Model 36.9% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 37.2% · Market 34.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+188 → +189Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 56.1% · Market 62.7%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 17.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 82.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 71.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 28.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.7% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 38.9% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -154Model 61.1% · Market 60.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 76.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 23.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 6, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,238
- Cumulative
- +2.4%
- Best day
- +2.4%
- Worst day
- +2.4%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$238 · +2.4%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $11,410 · tracked $238 on $200 settled paper stake · +119.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%