+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
164 games unified from 403 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-05.
Games164
Settled134
First edge-1.1%
Pregame edge-1.4%
Average CLV-0.0%
Totals CLV-1.2%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +166Model 40.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +198Model 34.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+166 → +198Logit -0.176 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 56.3% · Market 59.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 56.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-148 → -148Logit 0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 84.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 16.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 34.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 66.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 28.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 71.7% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 72.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 27.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 36.6% · Market 38.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 63.4% · Market 65.1%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 88.3% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 48.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+119 → +114Logit 0.043 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +240Model 39.7% · Market 29.4%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 38.5% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +9.2%+240 → +159Logit 0.412 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -279Model 66.4% · Market 74.0%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +250Model 33.6% · Market 29.0%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-279 → +250 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 15.7% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 84.3% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 72.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 27.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 17.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 43.3% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 56.7% · Market 65.1%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -131Model 48.8% · Market 57.7%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.0%-107 → -131Logit 0.243 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 71.4% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 28.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +105Model 46.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 54.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 8.5 +208Model 31.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -251Model 68.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -137Model 55.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +124Model 44.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 6.5 -564Model 82.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +456Model 17.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 40.8% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -161Model 59.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 14.5 -340Model 74.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +280Model 25.1% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 12.5 -183Model 62.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +165Model 37.9% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 7.5 -340Model 74.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +280Model 25.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 80.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +398Model 19.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -107Model 52.1% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +109Model 45.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 19.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 69.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 30.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.7% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 25.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 74.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 41.4% · Market 44.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 58.6% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 31.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 68.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 81.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 18.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 61.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 38.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -112Model 51.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-107 → -112Logit 0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 40.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 59.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 23.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 41.9% · Market 42.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 58.1% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 66.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 33.8% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 69.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 55.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 57.5% · Market 55.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.9% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 33.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 57.7% · Market 57.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.3% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -112Model 52.9% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%-103 → -112Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 20.6% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 79.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 38.0% · Market 43.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 62.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 54.7% · Market 60.7%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 45.3% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 17.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 82.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 24.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 72.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 27.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 87.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 12.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 37.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 62.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 92.1% · Market 95.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 7.9% · Market 6.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 29.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 70.2% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 47.9% · Market 43.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +109Model 48.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.2%+129 → +109Logit 0.169 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 40.2% · Market 36.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 59.8% · Market 67.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.2% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 23.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.7% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 31.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 68.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 50.1% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%-103 → +124Logit -0.224 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 25.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -103Model 51.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -112Model 51.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%-103 → -112Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 8.5 +188Model 52.1% · Market 35.2%Edge +16.9% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -209Model 47.9% · Market 68.1%Edge -20.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 22.3% · Market 39.7%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -183Model 77.7% · Market 64.7%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 36.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 42.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 21.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 57.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -19.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 72.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 27.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +12.5% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 64.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 35.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 18.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 86.7% · Market 78.3%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 38.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 13.3% · Market 25.3%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 +134Model 59.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +16.9% · Full Kelly 29.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -148Model 40.3% · Market 60.7%Edge -20.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 91.3% · Market 84.9%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 42.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 8.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 39.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +159Model 39.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+166 → +159Logit 0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 32.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 67.7% · Market 64.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 24.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 75.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 24.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 75.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 32.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 38.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 61.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 48.8% · Market 44.2%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 51.2% · Market 59.2%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 45.3% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +129Model 45.3% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+140 → +129Logit 0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 17.3% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 82.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 11.5 +218Model 29.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -263Model 71.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 21.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 78.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 12.6% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 87.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 8.5 +119Model 46.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 53.8% · Market 57.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 76.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 23.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 62.9% · Market 63.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +158Model 37.1% · Market 39.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 61.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 38.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 28.2% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 71.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 8.2% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.8% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +119Model 45.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +129Model 46.9% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+119 → +129Logit -0.081 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 49.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+114 → +119Logit -0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +129Model 49.7% · Market 44.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+101 → +129Logit -0.225 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 81.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 19.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 18.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 81.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 67.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 32.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 29.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -191Model 70.1% · Market 65.6%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 12.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 87.4% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 74.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 25.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 58.3% · Market 67.1%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 41.7% · Market 36.2%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 43.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 43.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.7% · Market 57.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 62.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +114Model 53.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 52.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+114 → +105Logit 0.082 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 54.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 45.5% · Market 45.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 16.0% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 73.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 26.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 77.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 22.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 17.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 82.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 65.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 34.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 36.7% · Market 40.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 63.3% · Market 63.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +140Model 45.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +140Model 39.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending9-5 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 54.9% · Market 56.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -126 | 7 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 33.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 66.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 69.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 37.1% · Market 37.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.9% · Market 66.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%