-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,709 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
166 games unified from 431 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-04.
Games166
Settled135
First edge-1.3%
Pregame edge-1.1%
Average CLV-0.8%
Totals CLV-1.9%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +280Model 40.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +229Model 38.3% · Market 30.4%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%+280 → +229Logit 0.201 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 21.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 64.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 35.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.3% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -131 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 16.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 83.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +173Model 40.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +189Model 35.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+173 → +189Logit -0.089 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.2% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 27.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.8% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 34.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 65.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 36.0% · Market 43.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 78.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 44.5% · Market 39.7%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 55.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 11.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 88.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 41.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 63.1% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 66.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 33.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 82.2% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 72.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 43.6% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 56.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +105Model 47.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +105Model 47.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -116Model 51.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 24.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 75.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 70.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 29.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 10.5 +119Model 50.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -131Model 52.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.2% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.8% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 8.5 -276Model 68.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 32.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 41.1% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 58.9% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 74.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 25.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassOver 15.5 +351Model 19.4% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 80.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 62.4% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 37.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +105Model 51.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.2% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 67.8% · Market 66.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 19.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 80.5% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.2% · Market 93.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.8% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 56.6% · Market 63.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 43.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 85.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 67.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 32.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 38.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 61.1% · Market 59.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 24.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 75.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 24.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 50.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 54.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-116 → +101Logit -0.158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 37.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 62.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -126Model 61.9% · Market 56.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 38.1% · Market 47.3%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 13.5 +296Model 18.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 82.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 75.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +208Model 24.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 7.8% · Market 6.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 92.2% · Market 96.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1464 → -2580 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 27.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 72.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 79.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +456Model 20.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 45.2% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -175Model 54.8% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 12.1% · Market 8.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 87.9% · Market 93.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 11.5 +159Model 29.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 70.1% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 49.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +105Model 52.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -121Model 52.1% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.0%+105 → -121Logit 0.239 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 24.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 75.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 88.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 79.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 20.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 27.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 72.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.2% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 55.0% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 45.0% · Market 40.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 61.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 38.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 30.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 70.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 37.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.166 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 48.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -137Model 56.7% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 55.8% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-137 → -126Logit -0.084 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 52.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 52.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%-137 → -142Logit 0.018 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 39.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 60.1% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 35.8% · Market 41.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 64.2% · Market 62.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.1% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 86.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 72.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 27.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 29.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 70.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 22.0% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 78.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 83.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 16.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.5% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.5% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 77.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 22.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -126Model 53.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +134Model 46.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 48.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 51.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -131 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 38.2% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +146Model 44.8% · Market 40.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +173Model 42.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+146 → +173Logit -0.170 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 64.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 35.5% · Market 34.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +197 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 48.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 54.6% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -142 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 70.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 29.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost6-1Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +140Model 49.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +140Model 49.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.0% · Market 57.3%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 27.9% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 72.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 36.3% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 63.7% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 28.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.3% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.7% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 52.1% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 42.4% · Market 46.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.4% · Market 46.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+114 → +119Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 39.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.5% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 33.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +152Model 41.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +159Model 38.3% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+152 → +159Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.5% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.0% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 57.0% · Market 60.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.1% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 63.8% · Market 67.5%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 36.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 22.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 77.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 71.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 28.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -121Model 52.1% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 72.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 27.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 28.7% · Market 39.7%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -183Model 71.3% · Market 64.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 56.6% · Market 67.1%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 43.4% · Market 36.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 17.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 82.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 24.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 88.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 25.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 11.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 79.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 20.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 66.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 33.6% · Market 26.3%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 48.7% · Market 59.2%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +129Model 51.3% · Market 44.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +129Model 48.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +134Model 45.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+129 → +134Logit -0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 74.8% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 25.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 61.0% · Market 59.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 39.0% · Market 44.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 11.7% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 80.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +456Model 20.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 8.5 -161Model 55.7% · Market 62.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +146Model 44.3% · Market 41.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 6.5 -381Model 73.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +313Model 26.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.6% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -228Model 63.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 18.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 81.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 11.5 +181Model 30.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 69.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 45.8% · Market 46.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 48.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +206Model 32.3% · Market 32.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.0%+140 → +206Logit -0.386 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -644Model 85.1% · Market 86.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +484Model 14.9% · Market 17.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-644 → +484 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 38.7% · Market 38.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.3% · Market 63.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +216Model 32.1% · Market 31.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -240Model 67.9% · Market 70.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+216 → -240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 50.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 56.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +206Model 47.5% · Market 32.7%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +276Model 24.7% · Market 26.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+206 → +276Logit -0.293 | 4 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 4, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,800
- Cumulative
- -2.0%
- Best day
- -2.0%
- Worst day
- -2.0%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,709 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 16
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%