Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

99 games unified from 243 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-03.

Games99
Settled80
First edge-1.6%
Pregame edge-0.7%
Average CLV-1.1%
Totals CLV-1.3%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSt. Louis Cardinals +240Model 40.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals +229Model 37.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.0%+240 → +229Logit 0.0474 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → -1035 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 68.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +280Model 31.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassOver 12.5 +574Model 18.7% · Market 14.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 81.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7192 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 25.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -251Model 74.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+208 → -2512 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -458Model 84.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 62.2% · Market 69.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +198Model 37.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-219 → +1982 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 33.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.9% · Market 63.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1752 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassOver 8.5 +134Model 47.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 52.3% · Market 60.7%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+134 → -1482 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 76.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +425Model 23.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-788 → +6252 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassAthletics +166Model 40.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAthletics +181Model 36.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%+166 → +181Logit -0.0864 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.5%-105 → +101Logit -0.0595 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-4PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 66.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +218Model 33.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-4PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 56.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +146Model 43.6% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-161 → +1462 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-4PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3512 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-4PassOver 6.5 -155Model 63.3% · Market 61.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 36.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-155 → +1402 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-4PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.6% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-4PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-719 → +5742 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-4PassOver 11.5 +425Model 20.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 79.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-4PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 72.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+296 → -3602 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -102Model 49.3% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.7%-102 → +105Logit -0.0695 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassTexas Rangers -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTexas Rangers +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.0785 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-6PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 11.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -564Model 88.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 23.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5642 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-6PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 26.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -199Model 73.6% · Market 66.6%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 21.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+166 → -1992 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-6PassOver 8.5 +124Model 56.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 44.0% · Market 57.8%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+124 → -1372 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-6PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 74.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +490Model 25.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-6PassOver 5.5 -276Model 80.2% · Market 73.4%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 25.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 19.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-276 → +2292 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-6PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.6% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 27.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-869 → +6852 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-6PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 60.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +240Model 39.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-6PassOver 11.5 +351Model 31.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 69.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-6PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 53.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +180Model 46.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-200 → +1802 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.0394 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassKansas City Royals +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +101Model 51.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+101 → +1014 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -137Model 52.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1374 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 11.5 -263Model 72.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +218Model 27.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+1074 → -14282 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 7.5 -183Model 60.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 40.0% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-183 → +1662 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 77.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +280Model 22.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassOver 10.5 +146Model 35.8% · Market 40.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 64.2% · Market 63.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1752 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.2% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-967 → +7562 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 6.5 -322Model 70.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 29.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 22.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -458Model 77.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 9 -110Model 51.4% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9 -110Model 51.4% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.0784 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMilwaukee Brewers -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago Cubs +105Model 52.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1054 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 27.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -239Model 72.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2392 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 4.5 -660Model 88.1% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 11.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.7% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.3% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+841 → -10872 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 10.5 +198Model 38.4% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 61.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+198 → -2392 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 37.5% · Market 44.7%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -142Model 62.5% · Market 58.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1422 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 54.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +152Model 45.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-168 → +1522 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 12.5 +373Model 24.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 75.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 69.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +296Model 30.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-2PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8 -104Model 49.5% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8 -104Model 49.5% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-104 → -104Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 51.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 51.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -102Model 49.5% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.2%-102 → -107Logit 0.0485 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-5PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +398Model 22.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3982 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 40.4% · Market 44.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -142Model 59.6% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1422 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 64.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +198Model 35.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6602 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.0% · Market 62.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +146Model 42.0% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-161 → +1462 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassOver 11.5 +280Model 27.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 72.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -360Model 77.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3602 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 29.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -239Model 70.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+198 → -2392 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.7% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+841 → -10872 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.7% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-105 → -1074 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost2-6Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betChicago White Sox +134Model 48.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betChicago White Sox +134Model 48.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-6PassOver 9.5 +146Model 41.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1612 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-6PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-6PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 65.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +189Model 35.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-228 → +1892 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-6PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-6PassOver 6.5 -239Model 70.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 29.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-6PassOver 7.5 -148Model 59.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.7% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-148 → +1342 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-6PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.5% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-6PassOver 12.5 +373Model 21.7% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 78.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-6PassOver 11.5 +280Model 27.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 73.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8 +101Model 51.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+100 → +1016 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassCleveland Guardians -121Model 55.3% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCleveland Guardians -112Model 57.5% · Market 52.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%-121 → -112Logit -0.0774 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-3PassOver 6.5 -199Model 63.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 36.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-199 → +1662 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-3PassOver 9.5 +181Model 34.6% · Market 35.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 65.4% · Market 67.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+181 → -2002 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-3PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2902 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-3PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-869 → +6252 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-3PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 71.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +252Model 28.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-306 → +2522 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-3PassOver 8.5 +119Model 44.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.6% · Market 57.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+119 → -1312 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-3PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 79.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-3PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSan Francisco Giants +134Model 44.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPittsburgh Pirates -168Model 61.4% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+134 → -1684 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -110Model 50.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-5.7%-110 → +114Logit -0.2264 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassUnder 9.5 -131Model 57.4% · Market 57.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +124Model 42.6% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-131 → +1242 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassOver 4.5 -869Model 87.0% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.0% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-869 → +6852 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 77.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +313Model 22.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-381 → +3132 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-5PassOver 10.5 +159Model 35.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 64.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+159 → -1912 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 72.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +240Model 27.9% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassUnder 7.5 +158Model 39.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -175Model 60.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+158 → -1752 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-5PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 22.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -430Model 78.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+351 → -4302 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-5PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.5% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+1074 → -14282 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassOver 6.5 -290Model 70.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 29.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 3, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,800
Cumulative
-2.0%
Best day
-2.0%
Worst day
-2.0%
Settled bets
1

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.2%-0.4%-1.0%-1.6%-2.2%Sep 3Sep 4

Daily bankroll return

+2.0%-2.0%Sep 3Sep 4

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,046 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,046 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
9
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%