+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
173 games unified from 423 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-02.
Games173
Settled136
First edge-1.4%
Pregame edge-1.1%
Average CLV-1.3%
Totals CLV-0.3%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +181Model 40.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +229Model 37.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.2%+181 → +229Logit -0.235 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -110Model 50.5% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.5%-110 → +109Logit -0.181 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 53.7% · Market 56.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 46.3% · Market 47.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 26.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 36.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 63.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 34.3% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -200Model 65.7% · Market 67.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 47.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 46.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 74.3% · Market 63.6%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 25.7% · Market 40.7%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 62.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -16.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 37.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 55.3% · Market 41.2%Edge +14.1% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 44.7% · Market 62.2%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 52.5% · Market 70.1%Edge -17.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +206Model 47.5% · Market 33.1%Edge +14.4% · Full Kelly 22.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +206 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 23.5% · Market 12.7%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 76.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 15.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 84.3% · Market 76.3%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 33.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 89.6% · Market 84.0%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 35.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 10.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 31.0% · Market 19.0%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 69.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 +100Model 51.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7 -105Model 52.0% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%+100 → -105Logit 0.049 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +105Model 47.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 45.2% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+105 → +119Logit -0.125 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 59.8% · Market 60.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 40.2% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 31.0% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 69.0% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 42.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 57.9% · Market 60.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 66.4% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 33.6% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 76.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 23.6% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.3% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 20.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 25.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 74.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -103Model 51.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -104Model 50.6% · Market 51.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +105Model 51.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → +105 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 41.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 58.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 12.5 +296Model 20.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -360Model 79.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.3% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.7% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 33.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 66.3% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 69.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 30.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 23.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 76.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 40.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 59.6% · Market 58.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 25.9% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 74.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.1% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -103Model 51.5% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-105 → -103Logit -0.019 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -200Model 61.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +180Model 38.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 7.8% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.2% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 27.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 82.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 18.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 37.8% · Market 42.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 62.2% · Market 61.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 75.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 24.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 70.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 29.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-6 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 44.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 55.1% · Market 60.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-6 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 79.5% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 20.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -102Model 48.6% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-102 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs +114Model 47.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +124Model 48.9% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+114 → +124Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 57.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 68.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 31.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 60.5% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 39.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 67.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates -148Model 58.3% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -154Model 58.5% · Market 60.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-148 → -154Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 40.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 59.5% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 41.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 41.8% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+140 → +152Logit -0.041 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 23.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 69.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.2% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.0% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 66.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 33.9% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 50.0% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -102Model 50.0% · Market 50.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-110 → -102Logit -0.075 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -121Model 53.4% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 51.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.0%-121 → +114Logit -0.322 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 35.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 64.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 64.4% · Market 61.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 35.6% · Market 42.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 55.1% · Market 62.2%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 44.9% · Market 41.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 72.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 27.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7 +102Model 49.6% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +100Model 49.9% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+102 → +100 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays -154Model 58.9% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +152Model 39.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +152 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 47.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-4 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 22.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 77.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 14.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 85.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 83.8% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 16.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 71.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 28.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 51.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 45.8% · Market 56.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 66.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 33.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-4 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 58.0% · Market 67.5%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 42.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 87.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 12.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 21.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 78.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 53.0% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 52.7% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -108Model 50.4% · Market 51.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-108 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -142Model 57.4% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +122Model 46.1% · Market 45.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +122 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 6.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 93.1% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 58.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 41.2% · Market 33.6%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 81.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 18.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 32.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 67.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 65.0% · Market 58.2%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 35.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 10.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 89.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 23.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 25.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 75.0% · Market 70.5%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 72.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 27.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 52.0% · Market 63.2%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 48.0% · Market 40.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +110Model 50.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%-107 → +110Logit -0.163 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -105Model 51.9% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -104Model 50.6% · Market 51.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 51.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 60.4% · Market 58.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-121 → -142Logit 0.160 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 68.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 31.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 67.0% · Market 66.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 33.0% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.5% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 14.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 85.6% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 57.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +124Model 44.2% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 43.7% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+124 → +146Logit -0.163 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 -103Model 48.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -228Model 72.8% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +189Model 27.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +140Model 34.7% · Market 42.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -155Model 65.3% · Market 61.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 +159Model 44.0% · Market 38.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -191Model 56.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 28.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 71.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 8.5 -290Model 65.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +240Model 34.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 19.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 80.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 14.2% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 85.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 10.5 -142Model 49.4% · Market 59.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +129Model 50.6% · Market 44.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 14.5 +240Model 22.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -290Model 77.6% · Market 74.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 82.8% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +351Model 17.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 11Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11 -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11 +100Model 51.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%-110 → +100Logit -0.095 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -121Model 50.8% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 48.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +140Model 42.0% · Market 41.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -162Model 62.1% · Market 61.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 29.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 60.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -15.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 39.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 43.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 56.3% · Market 45.2%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 21.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 80.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 26.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 19.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 68.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 31.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 46.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 53.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -16.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 88.6% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 29.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 11.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 73.9% · Market 65.1%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 26.1% · Market 38.2%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 48.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +120Model 47.8% · Market 45.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.2%+119 → +120Logit -0.008 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 76.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 23.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 39.0% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 61.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 16.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 83.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 77.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 22.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 32.1% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 67.9% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 55.4% · Market 61.7%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 44.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 63.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 36.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 93.9% · Market 94.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 6.1% · Market 7.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 69.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 30.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -104Model 49.2% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -104 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -102Model 49.0% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.2%-102 → -103Logit 0.010 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +132Model 44.1% · Market 43.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.7%+109 → +132Logit -0.192 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 39.0% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 61.0% · Market 59.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 69.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +181Model 30.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.6% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 79.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 20.1% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 37.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 63.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 73.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 26.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 88.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 11.8% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 18.7% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 81.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 44.3% · Market 42.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -155Model 55.7% · Market 61.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%