+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
180 games unified from 434 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-01.
Games180
Settled142
First edge-1.5%
Pregame edge-1.4%
Average CLV-0.9%
Totals CLV-0.4%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 41.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +164Model 37.8% · Market 37.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%+152 → +164Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.5% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 57.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 42.7% · Market 40.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 14.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.4% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 68.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 31.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 39.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 60.3% · Market 57.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 76.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 24.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 66.9% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 33.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 50.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 51.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 42.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 57.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 77.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 22.2% · Market 14.8%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 47.8% · Market 60.7%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 13.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.8% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.4% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 77.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 22.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 72.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 27.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 35.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 64.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 29.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 70.6% · Market 63.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -105Model 50.7% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -105Model 50.7% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 45.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +162Model 43.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.5%+140 → +162Logit -0.146 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 30.9% · Market 42.2%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 30.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+140 → +140Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 14.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.9% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 76.5% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 23.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 26.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 20.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 79.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 49.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 50.5% · Market 41.2%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 59.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 40.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 66.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 33.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -102Model 50.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -102Model 50.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-102 → -102Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 11Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11 -102Model 51.4% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11 -105Model 51.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.7%-102 → -105Logit 0.029 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 45.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +130Model 44.4% · Market 43.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.2%+114 → +130Logit -0.131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 31.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -265Model 68.6% · Market 73.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +105Model 44.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -121Model 55.6% · Market 55.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -121 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 10.5 -142Model 53.0% · Market 58.7%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -131Model 53.0% · Market 57.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-142 → -131Logit -0.040 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 40.5% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -168Model 59.5% · Market 63.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.3% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 15.5 +331Model 19.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -404Model 80.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 13.5 +189Model 30.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -228Model 69.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 25.4% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 74.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +134Model 38.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -168Model 61.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -967Model 87.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +756Model 12.5% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 74.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +240Model 25.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -104Model 49.6% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -104Model 51.1% · Market 51.0%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -104 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.7% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 56.3% · Market 61.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 38.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 38.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+134 → +129Logit 0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 76.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 23.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.9% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.1% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 63.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 37.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 71.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 28.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 87.5% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 12.5% · Market 15.9%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 21.2% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 78.8% · Market 78.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +159Model 39.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +176Model 34.5% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%+159 → +176Logit -0.102 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-107 → -112Logit 0.046 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 47.1% · Market 61.2%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 71.2% · Market 62.7%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.8% · Market 40.7%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 87.1% · Market 82.1%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 28.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 12.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 71.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 28.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 78.3% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 23.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 21.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 63.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 43.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 56.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.6% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 31.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -112Model 50.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -106Model 52.0% · Market 51.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.4%-112 → -106Logit -0.055 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.6% · Market 43.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 59.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 78.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 21.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 64.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 35.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-15 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 70.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 29.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 22.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 77.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-15 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 27.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 72.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-15 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.2% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 58.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 41.8% · Market 42.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -104Model 53.6% · Market 51.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10 -115Model 53.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.5%-104 → -115Logit 0.101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers +108Model 46.5% · Market 48.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.7%-103 → +108Logit -0.106 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassOver 10.5 -107Model 47.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 36.2% · Market 46.7%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-107 → +114Logit -0.199 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 60.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 39.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 78.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 21.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassOver 14.5 +373Model 13.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -458Model 87.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +351Model 28.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 71.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 8.5 -191Model 52.9% · Market 65.6%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 47.1% · Market 38.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -360Model 83.4% · Market 78.3%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 23.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +296Model 16.6% · Market 25.3%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 9.5 +109Model 51.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -116Model 43.0% · Market 54.2%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -183Model 71.9% · Market 65.1%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 20.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +165Model 28.1% · Market 38.2%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 87.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 12.9% · Market 8.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -239Model 77.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +198Model 22.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +102Model 53.4% · Market 49.5%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.2%-116 → +102Logit -0.168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 29.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 70.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -126Model 64.7% · Market 56.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 35.3% · Market 47.3%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -1236Model 86.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 13.4% · Market 9.6%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 72.7% · Market 66.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 27.3% · Market 37.6%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 16.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 83.9% · Market 79.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 8.5 -175Model 52.0% · Market 64.2%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 48.0% · Market 39.2%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -276Model 78.0% · Market 73.4%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +229Model 22.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 40.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 59.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 91.3% · Market 95.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 8.7% · Market 6.4%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 77.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 22.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -115Model 53.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10 -115Model 53.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -137Model 56.1% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -118Model 54.5% · Market 54.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.7%-137 → -118Logit -0.149 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 -118Model 53.0% · Market 54.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +102Model 51.1% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-118 → +102 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 75.7% · Market 89.7%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 24.3% · Market 12.7%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 38.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 61.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 20.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -14.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 79.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 45.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -20.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -183 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 7.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 92.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 40.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 27.3% · Market 41.7%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+114 → +140Logit -0.205 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -279Model 55.2% · Market 74.0%Edge -18.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 44.8% · Market 29.5%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-279 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 12.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 88.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 36.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 29.9% · Market 18.0%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 70.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 51.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -106Model 52.5% · Market 51.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -105Model 51.1% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-106 → -105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +146Model 52.9% · Market 40.6%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +126Model 49.2% · Market 44.3%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.6%+146 → +126Logit 0.147 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -131Model 61.3% · Market 57.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 38.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 20.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 79.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 26.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 73.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 92.3% · Market 96.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 7.7% · Market 5.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2580 → +1775 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 62.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 37.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 18.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -404Model 81.5% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 75.1% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 24.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 11.8% · Market 9.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 88.2% · Market 93.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 69.5% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 30.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 8.5 -175Model 55.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 44.6% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -103Model 51.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +119Model 44.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +116Model 44.8% · Market 46.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+119 → +116Logit 0.026 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 70.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.7% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 84.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 26.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 73.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 57.3% · Market 58.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 42.7% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 33.0% · Market 35.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 67.0% · Market 68.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 37.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 62.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -104Model 49.9% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.2%-104 → -105Logit 0.010 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +116Model 46.3% · Market 46.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.4%+101 → +116Logit -0.138 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -126Model 51.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%-107 → -126Logit 0.163 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 81.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 18.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 41.7% · Market 41.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 58.3% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 79.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 20.7% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 93.2% · Market 95.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 6.8% · Market 6.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 24.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 75.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 27.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 72.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 34.6% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 65.4% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +226Model 33.2% · Market 31.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -252Model 66.8% · Market 72.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+226 → -252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +119Model 41.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 58.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +134Model 41.7% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +144Model 42.5% · Market 41.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%+134 → +144Logit -0.072 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -108Model 50.5% · Market 51.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -108Model 50.5% · Market 51.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-108 → -108Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 31.2% · Market 40.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 68.8% · Market 63.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 50.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 49.9% · Market 59.7%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 59.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 40.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 33.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 66.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 76.3% · Market 71.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 23.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 14.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.7% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 74.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 25.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +146Model 40.0% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +154Model 47.6% · Market 39.4%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%+146 → +154Logit -0.053 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -115Model 51.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +102Model 50.2% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-115 → +102 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 64.8% · Market 67.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 64.8% · Market 67.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-208 → -200Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.0% · Market 57.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 45.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 78.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 28.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%