+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
34 games unified from 109 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-12.
Games34
Settled2
First edge+5.2%
Pregame edge+4.9%
Average CLV-0.6%
Totals CLV-0.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n13d966Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 46.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 47.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+105 → +119Logit -0.118 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n13d966Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +181Model 40.6% · Market 34.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +189Model 38.5% · Market 33.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+181 → +189Logit -0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf81dc0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +114Model 46.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -137Model 56.4% · Market 55.3%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf81dc0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 46.1% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 47.3% · Market 36.1%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+146 → +166Logit -0.123 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf81dc0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nba035cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +119Model 43.6% · Market 43.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 46.1% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+119 → +124Logit -0.023 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nba035cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 47.4% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 47.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+119 → +129Logit -0.077 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n7904b9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +129Model 43.2% · Market 41.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +152Model 44.5% · Market 38.0%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.4%+129 → +152Logit -0.143 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n7904b9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 51.8% · Market 48.1%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-103 → +101Logit -0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9f853aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $43 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 8.5 +158Model 49.9% · Market 37.9%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.4% · $43 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 49.9% · Market 37.9%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+158 → +158Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9f853aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 52.3% · Market 46.2%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 49.1% · Market 45.3%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+109 → +109Logit -0.036 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9f853aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-6Paper stake $142 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 9.5 +240Model 41.0% · Market 28.3%Edge +12.7% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142 | Paper betOver 9.5 +229Model 41.0% · Market 29.3%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.8% · $79 | +0.9%+240 → +229Logit 0.046 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9f853aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-6Paper stake $184 · P/L $209 | Paper betOver 7.5 +114Model 58.8% · Market 46.1%Edge +12.7% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $184 | Paper betOver 7.5 +114Model 58.8% · Market 46.1%Edge +12.7% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $184 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9f853aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 48.5% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 48.5% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nec63f2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -126Model 58.8% · Market 53.3%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -142Model 55.9% · Market 55.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.3%-126 → -142Logit 0.094 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nec63f2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 52.2% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-107 → -112Logit 0.044 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nf45c3cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +140Model 49.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +140Model 42.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nf45c3cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 46.9% · Market 24.4%Edge +22.5% · Full Kelly 28.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 46.3% · Market 22.4%Edge +23.8% · Full Kelly 30.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+296 → +331Logit -0.109 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n240a27Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.5% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.043 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n240a27Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -137Model 55.2% · Market 54.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +109Model 47.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4398f0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -116Model 54.5% · Market 51.4%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -121Model 53.0% · Market 51.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-116 → -121Logit 0.019 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4398f0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 53.1% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 47.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n55a513Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +101Model 52.8% · Market 47.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -103Model 51.6% · Market 48.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+101 → -103Logit 0.020 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n55a513Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 51.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 51.1% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n228d5eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 48.8% · Market 45.3%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +124Model 44.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.5%+109 → +124Logit -0.101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n228d5eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 50.8% · Market 43.0%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 44.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.7%+119 → +114Logit 0.071 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nf9ae07Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -183Model 62.2% · Market 62.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -175Model 63.4% · Market 61.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-183 → -175Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nf9ae07Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 52.7% · Market 51.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 47.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66ndae6a6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +189Model 46.3% · Market 33.2%Edge +13.1% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +198Model 39.5% · Market 32.3%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+189 → +198Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66ndae6a6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 52.8% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nda5784Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 46.6% · Market 40.5%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +140Model 41.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+134 → +140Logit -0.025 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nda5784Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 53.5% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 47.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n348f5bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -116Model 52.1% · Market 50.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -107Model 51.9% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n348f5bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.7% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 12, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,550
- Cumulative
- +5.5%
- Best day
- +5.5%
- Worst day
- +5.5%
- Settled bets
- 2
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$209 · +2.1%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.8%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,582 · tracked $209 on $184 settled paper stake · +114.0% ROI
+$393 · +3.9%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.3%
Full Kelly benchmark $16,985 · tracked $390 on $262 settled paper stake · +148.5% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%