Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

33 games unified from 134 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-11.

Games33
Settled33
First edge+3.9%
Pregame edge+2.9%
Average CLV+0.1%
Totals CLV+0.3%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ne9a17dStarts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betLost4-5PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.6% · Market 48.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -115Model 51.9% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-105 → -1157 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ne9a17dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-5PassKansas City Royals +220Model 40.7% · Market 29.8%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +225Model 32.8% · Market 29.3%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+220 → +225Logit -0.0235 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n999b6fStarts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassOver 8 -105Model 49.0% · Market 48.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 -110Model 51.2% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.1%-105 → -110Logit 0.0434 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n999b6fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon1-4PassSan Francisco Giants +155Model 48.2% · Market 37.5%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Francisco Giants +155Model 40.0% · Market 37.5%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+155 → +155Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n594e41Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-11PassUnder 7.5 -110Model 51.5% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -115Model 51.2% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.1%-110 → -115Logit 0.0433 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n594e41Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-11PassSan Diego Padres +120Model 46.8% · Market 43.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Diego Padres +110Model 45.6% · Market 45.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+120 → +110Logit 0.0774 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7abe56Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon3-2PassColorado Rockies +150Model 41.1% · Market 38.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +145Model 40.6% · Market 39.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.8%+150 → +145Logit 0.0354 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7abe56Starts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betWon3-2PassUnder 9 +100Model 51.0% · Market 47.8%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9 +105Model 50.5% · Market 45.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.2%+100 → +105Logit -0.0894 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8b1ab5Starts TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no betLost12-4PassUnder 10 -105Model 53.5% · Market 48.9%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -115Model 53.2% · Market 51.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-105 → -1155 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8b1ab5Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost12-4PassAthletics +135Model 45.5% · Market 40.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAthletics +165Model 41.7% · Market 36.1%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.7%+135 → +165Logit -0.1984 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n2c0c6dStarts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassUnder 9 -105Model 50.5% · Market 48.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9 -115Model 51.5% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-105 → -1153 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n2c0c6dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-3PassLos Angeles Angels +120Model 46.8% · Market 43.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassLos Angeles Angels +125Model 45.4% · Market 42.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%+120 → +125Logit -0.0394 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n1fa980Starts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betWon0-2PassUnder 8 -105Model 51.8% · Market 48.9%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 51.1% · Market 48.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-105 → -1057 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n1fa980Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon0-2PassSt. Louis Cardinals +140Model 45.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals +135Model 41.5% · Market 40.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%+140 → +135Logit 0.0394 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n14a6a3Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-2PassUnder 9.5 -118Model 52.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9 -110Model 50.9% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-118 → -1105 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n14a6a3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon5-2PassBaltimore Orioles -102Model 48.5% · Market 48.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles -105Model 53.4% · Market 48.9%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.7%-102 → -105Logit 0.0264 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6afc75Starts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betLost5-4PassOver 8 -115Model 51.2% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 49.8% · Market 48.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-115 → -1057 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6afc75Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon5-4PassCincinnati Reds +135Model 43.4% · Market 40.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +135Model 45.5% · Market 40.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.3%+135 → +135Logit 0.0144 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n29be37Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-4PassUnder 8.5 -110Model 52.2% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -110Model 51.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n29be37Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-4PassNew York Mets +110Model 47.4% · Market 45.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets +110Model 48.2% · Market 45.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+110 → +110Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n80da3cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-5PassBoston Red Sox +125Model 45.7% · Market 42.6%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBoston Red Sox +115Model 46.5% · Market 44.4%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.8%+125 → +115Logit 0.0743 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n80da3cStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-5PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 46.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 45.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → +1056 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6709c3Starts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassUnder 8 -110Model 50.9% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 -110Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → -1103 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6709c3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-4PassNew York Yankees -133Model 54.9% · Market 54.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners +115Model 45.5% · Market 44.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-133 → +1154 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nc1acc2Starts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betWon8-6PassOver 9 -110Model 50.8% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9 -110Model 51.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nc1acc2Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost8-6PassWashington Nationals +140Model 49.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +150Model 41.8% · Market 38.3%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.6%+140 → +150Logit -0.0684 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nbebe4cStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-2Paper stake $139 · P/L -$139Paper betOver 7.5 +134Model 54.2% · Market 41.8%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 20.0%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $139Paper betOver 7.5 +129Model 54.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +11.5% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $134+0.9%+134 → +129Logit 0.0382 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nbebe4cStarts TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no betLost0-2PassOver 7 -105Model 51.0% · Market 48.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7 -110Model 52.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.1%-105 → -110Logit 0.0433 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nbebe4cStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-2Paper stake $32 · P/L -$32Paper betOver 9.5 +266Model 36.6% · Market 26.4%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.3% · $32Paper betOver 9.5 +266Model 36.6% · Market 26.4%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.8% · $78+0.0%+266 → +266Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nbebe4cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon0-2PassMiami Marlins +100Model 52.5% · Market 47.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins -105Model 52.7% · Market 48.9%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.1%+100 → -105Logit 0.0444 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nbebe4cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-2Paper stake $58 · P/L -$58Paper betOver 8.5 +188Model 45.3% · Market 34.0%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $58Paper betOver 8.5 +188Model 45.3% · Market 35.0%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+1.0%+188 → +188Logit 0.0432 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nf58a8cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-6PassDetroit Tigers -125Model 55.1% · Market 53.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCleveland Guardians +118Model 45.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-125 → +1184 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nf58a8cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-6PassUnder 8.5 -110Model 52.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.1% · Market 48.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → -1055 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 11, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,771
Cumulative
-2.3%
Best day
-2.3%
Worst day
-2.3%
Settled bets
3

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.3%-0.4%-1.1%-1.9%-2.6%Aug 11Aug 18Aug 26

Daily bankroll return

+2.3%-2.3%Aug 11Aug 18Aug 26

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,773

-$227 · -2.3%

Bets
3
Record
0-3
Avg. policy Kelly
0.8%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,854 · tracked -$229 on $229 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,594

-$406 · -4.1%

Bets
3
Record
0-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.4%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,951 · tracked -$412 on $412 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
15
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%