Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

22 games unified from 69 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-10.

Games22
Settled22
First edge+2.9%
Pregame edge+2.9%
Average CLV-0.0%
Totals CLV-0.2%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n6a73c6Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost5-6PassKansas City Royals +225Model 33.8% · Market 29.3%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +230Model 33.2% · Market 28.9%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+225 → +230Logit -0.0223 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n6a73c6Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassOver 7.5 +100Model 48.9% · Market 47.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 46.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+100 → +105Logit -0.0433 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n7aa87cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-3PassUnder 8.5 -115Model 51.7% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -102Model 48.4% · Market 48.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-115 → -1023 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n7aa87cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost6-3PassSan Francisco Giants +125Model 44.1% · Market 42.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Francisco Giants +125Model 44.1% · Market 42.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+125 → +125Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2cc08aStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-9PassUnder 8.5 +100Model 51.4% · Market 47.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 51.4% · Market 48.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.8%+100 → -105Logit 0.0732 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2cc08aStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-9PassColorado Rockies +170Model 38.0% · Market 35.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +180Model 38.0% · Market 34.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.3%+170 → +180Logit -0.0573 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n96f1c7Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost10-6PassAthletics +135Model 42.7% · Market 40.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAthletics +135Model 42.6% · Market 40.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+135 → +135Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n96f1c7Starts TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no betLost10-6PassUnder 10 -115Model 52.2% · Market 51.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10 -115Model 52.3% · Market 51.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nae06a3Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-3Paper stake $130 · P/L -$130Paper betOver 9.5 +252Model 37.7% · Market 27.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $130Paper betOver 9.5 +252Model 37.7% · Market 27.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133+0.0%+252 → +252Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nae06a3Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-3Paper stake $14 · P/L -$14Paper betOver 7.5 +114Model 55.4% · Market 45.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $14Paper betOver 7.5 +114Model 55.4% · Market 45.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $14+0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nae06a3Starts TotalOpening line 7Paper Kelly trackedLost2-3Paper stake $17 · P/L -$17Paper betOver 7 -110Model 52.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.2% · $17Paper betOver 7 -110Model 52.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.2% · $17+0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.0005 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nae06a3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-3PassSan Diego Padres +100Model 48.1% · Market 47.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Diego Padres +105Model 49.0% · Market 46.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+100 → +105Logit -0.0433 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n7dc29aStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-1PassTexas Rangers -118Model 52.2% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTexas Rangers -115Model 52.6% · Market 51.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.7%-118 → -115Logit -0.0263 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n7dc29aStarts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 8 -110Model 51.8% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -102Model 50.0% · Market 48.3%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → -1025 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na56a6cStarts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betLost6-5PassUnder 9 -110Model 53.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9 -110Model 51.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na56a6cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon6-5PassSt. Louis Cardinals -110Model 50.9% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPhiladelphia Phillies -120Model 54.2% · Market 52.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → -1204 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ncdf1baStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-9PassUnder 8.5 -115Model 51.7% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.0% · Market 48.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-115 → -1053 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ncdf1baStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon5-9PassMinnesota Twins +100Model 50.3% · Market 47.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMinnesota Twins -110Model 50.2% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.2%+100 → -110Logit 0.0874 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n2f9648Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon8-5PassNew York Mets +125Model 44.9% · Market 42.3%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets +125Model 47.8% · Market 42.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.3%+125 → +125Logit 0.0134 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n2f9648Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-5PassUnder 8.5 -118Model 51.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -110Model 51.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.7%-118 → -110Logit -0.0703 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n90a225Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassOver 8.5 +100Model 48.3% · Market 47.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -102Model 48.9% · Market 47.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+100 → -102Logit -0.0193 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n90a225Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon1-2PassToronto Blue Jays +145Model 48.5% · Market 39.1%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassToronto Blue Jays +135Model 45.4% · Market 40.8%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.7%+145 → +135Logit 0.0734 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 10, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,839
Cumulative
-1.6%
Best day
-1.6%
Worst day
-1.6%
Settled bets
3

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.2%-0.3%-0.8%-1.3%-1.8%Aug 10Aug 18Aug 26

Daily bankroll return

+1.6%-1.6%Aug 10Aug 18Aug 26

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,839

-$161 · -1.6%

Bets
3
Record
0-3
Avg. policy Kelly
0.5%

Full Kelly benchmark $7,230 · tracked -$161 on $161 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,837

-$163 · -1.6%

Bets
3
Record
0-3
Avg. policy Kelly
0.5%

Full Kelly benchmark $7,230 · tracked -$164 on $164 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
10
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%