+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
28 games unified from 111 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-09.
Games28
Settled28
First edge+5.7%
Pregame edge+4.7%
Average CLV-0.0%
Totals CLV+0.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n267f7bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +119Model 49.6% · Market 43.4%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +124Model 49.6% · Market 42.8%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+119 → +124Logit -0.023 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n267f7bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 48.4% · Market 42.8%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 43.0% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfe95e9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassSeattle Mariners -107Model 54.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -121Model 54.7% · Market 51.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%-107 → -121Logit 0.058 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfe95e9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 41.4% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 56.9% · Market 56.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nacaf09Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 54.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 52.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nacaf09Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassSan Francisco Giants +101Model 51.8% · Market 47.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +101Model 51.7% · Market 47.2%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+101 → +101Logit -0.018 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nbcf349Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 45.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 45.5% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nbcf349Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 64.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +16.5% · Full Kelly 28.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 52.0% · Market 43.8%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.9%+101 → +119Logit -0.155 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na08b04Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassColorado Rockies +134Model 42.0% · Market 40.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 42.0% · Market 39.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+134 → +140Logit -0.025 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na08b04Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -126Model 63.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -126Model 62.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n0b11aeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassMinnesota Twins +208Model 41.6% · Market 31.2%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +218Model 41.9% · Market 30.3%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+208 → +218Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n0b11aeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 62.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 59.1% · Market 45.8%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 21.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n8fdc32Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassChicago White Sox -112Model 51.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -107Model 51.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.044 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n8fdc32Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 63.9% · Market 48.6%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 53.2% · Market 49.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-103 → -107Logit 0.035 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na41a59Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost10-2 | PassKansas City Royals +140Model 46.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +140Model 46.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na41a59Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-2 | PassUnder 9.5 +109Model 50.9% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +109Model 54.5% · Market 45.8%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n69ebebStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-12 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 54.1% · Market 50.0%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 55.3% · Market 50.5%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-112 → -112Logit 0.022 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n69ebebStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-12 | PassLos Angeles Angels +129Model 45.5% · Market 41.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +129Model 44.3% · Market 41.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n01b743Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 42.4% · Market 38.6%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 39.5% · Market 38.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+146 → +152Logit -0.024 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n01b743Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassToronto Blue Jays +166Model 41.7% · Market 36.4%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +166Model 41.8% · Market 35.8%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.7%+166 → +166Logit -0.029 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n637189Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassAtlanta Braves +124Model 44.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +124Model 44.6% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n637189Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 54.5% · Market 50.5%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n670b58Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-1 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 56.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 52.6% · Market 45.8%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.074 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n670b58Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won11-1 | PassNew York Mets +119Model 47.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +119Model 47.3% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9a4c20Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassAthletics +198Model 40.9% · Market 31.9%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +208Model 40.7% · Market 30.9%Edge +9.8% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+198 → +208Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9a4c20Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 9.5 +119Model 47.1% · Market 43.0%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.5%+119 → -107Logit 0.261 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd69817Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassWashington Nationals -107Model 52.7% · Market 49.0%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -112Model 53.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.5%-107 → -112Logit 0.060 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd69817Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 41.1% · Market 40.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 41.2% · Market 40.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+134 → +134Logit 0.016 | 4 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 14
- Both cleared
- 2
- Rate
- 14.3%