Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

35 games unified from 93 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-08.

Games35
Settled35
First edge+8.1%
Pregame edge+8.1%
Average CLV-0.4%
Totals CLV-0.3%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n0f31f7Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost8-0PassSan Francisco Giants -107Model 51.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Francisco Giants +101Model 48.9% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.8%-107 → +101Logit -0.0743 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n0f31f7Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-0PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 64.1% · Market 63.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 64.8% · Market 63.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.6%-199 → -199Logit 0.0263 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n39d7d3Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-6PassOver 7.5 -121Model 70.6% · Market 52.4%Edge +18.2% · Full Kelly 35.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +109Model 67.8% · Market 45.8%Edge +22.1% · Full Kelly 38.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.6%-121 → +109Logit -0.2663 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n39d7d3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon3-6PassChicago White Sox +109Model 49.5% · Market 45.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox +114Model 53.1% · Market 44.7%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.0433 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n49d7ecStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-6PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 61.6% · Market 58.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 62.2% · Market 60.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%-154 → -168Logit 0.0803 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n49d7ecStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost8-6PassSt. Louis Cardinals -161Model 59.7% · Market 59.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals -161Model 60.9% · Market 59.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-161 → -161Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-5PassBaltimore Orioles +119Model 49.0% · Market 43.8%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 48.3% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+119 → +129Logit -0.0773 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-5Paper stake $179 · P/L -$179Paper betOver 7.5 +105Model 66.8% · Market 47.6%Edge +19.2% · Full Kelly 35.2%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $179Paper betOver 7.5 +105Model 66.8% · Market 47.6%Edge +19.2% · Full Kelly 35.2%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $179+0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-5Paper stake $1 · P/L -$1Paper betOver 8.5 +146Model 58.4% · Market 39.8%Edge +18.6% · Full Kelly 29.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $1Paper betOver 8.5 +146Model 58.4% · Market 39.8%Edge +18.6% · Full Kelly 29.9%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $10+0.0%+146 → +146Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-5PassOver 5.5 -239Model 81.1% · Market 67.1%Edge +14.0% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -239Model 81.1% · Market 67.8%Edge +13.3% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.7%-239 → -239Logit 0.0312 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-5Paper stake $133 · P/L -$133Paper betOver 9.5 +218Model 49.6% · Market 30.3%Edge +19.3% · Full Kelly 26.4%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133Paper betOver 9.5 +218Model 49.6% · Market 30.3%Edge +19.3% · Full Kelly 26.4%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $128+0.0%+218 → +218Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-5Paper stake $80 · P/L -$80Paper betOver 11.5 +425Model 32.4% · Market 18.5%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.8% · $80Paper betOver 11.5 +425Model 32.4% · Market 18.5%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.8% · $81+0.0%+425 → +425Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassOver 6.5 -161Model 74.5% · Market 59.7%Edge +14.8% · Full Kelly 33.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -161Model 74.5% · Market 60.2%Edge +14.3% · Full Kelly 33.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%-161 → -161Logit 0.0212 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5ef2f8Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassOver 10.5 +280Model 40.8% · Market 25.2%Edge +15.6% · Full Kelly 19.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +296Model 40.8% · Market 24.4%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 20.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.8%+280 → +296Logit -0.0412 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd9f49Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-3PassSan Diego Padres -126Model 55.5% · Market 53.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassHouston Astros +101Model 49.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-126 → +1013 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd9f49Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassOver 8.5 +109Model 46.7% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +119Model 45.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%+109 → +119Logit -0.0813 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n61f1daStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon3-6PassKansas City Royals +140Model 50.3% · Market 39.9%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +129Model 43.9% · Market 41.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+140 → +129Logit 0.0803 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n61f1daStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-6PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 40.5% · Market 39.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -142Model 61.2% · Market 56.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+140 → -1423 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nb4245fStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-4Paper stake $184 · P/L -$184Paper betOver 9.5 +173Model 48.1% · Market 36.0%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $184Paper betOver 9.5 +166Model 48.1% · Market 36.5%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $176+0.5%+173 → +166Logit 0.0222 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nb4245fStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-4Paper stake $71 · P/L -$71Paper betOver 7.5 -126Model 65.5% · Market 54.3%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 22.0%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $71Paper betOver 7.5 -131Model 65.5% · Market 54.2%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 20.3%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $10-0.1%-126 → -131Logit -0.0034 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nb4245fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-4PassMinnesota Twins +129Model 45.9% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMinnesota Twins +124Model 43.1% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%+129 → +124Logit 0.0383 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nb4245fStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-4Paper stake $14 · P/L -$14Paper betOver 10.5 +229Model 39.4% · Market 29.3%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $14Paper betOver 10.5 +229Model 39.4% · Market 29.3%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $14+0.0%+229 → +229Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n4fe6dcStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedWon2-8Paper stake $67 · P/L $45Paper betOver 7.5 -148Model 68.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $67Paper betOver 7.5 -148Model 68.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $67+0.0%-148 → -148Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n4fe6dcStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedWon2-8Paper stake $195 · P/L $273Paper betOver 9.5 +140Model 51.9% · Market 40.8%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $195Paper betOver 9.5 +140Model 51.9% · Market 40.8%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $156+0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n4fe6dcStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-8PassWashington Nationals +119Model 53.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +119Model 51.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n94f5e3Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-9PassOver 9.5 +129Model 50.5% · Market 41.4%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+5.2%+129 → +105Logit 0.2123 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n94f5e3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon0-9PassNew York Mets +119Model 43.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPittsburgh Pirates -121Model 53.2% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+119 → -1213 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n07a192Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-5PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 62.3% · Market 55.3%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 62.8% · Market 59.1%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+3.8%-137 → -161Logit 0.1543 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n07a192Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost7-5PassPhiladelphia Phillies -161Model 61.0% · Market 59.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPhiladelphia Phillies -175Model 63.0% · Market 61.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%-161 → -175Logit 0.0813 decision snapshots
Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3b2d3aStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassOver 10.5 +140Model 44.1% · Market 39.9%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +152Model 48.7% · Market 38.0%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+140 → +152Logit -0.0802 decision snapshots
Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3b2d3aStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon7-3PassAthletics +198Model 40.2% · Market 32.3%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAthletics +229Model 36.8% · Market 29.3%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.0%+198 → +229Logit -0.1402 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nc58028Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-7PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.3% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +101Model 56.3% · Market 47.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.6%-131 → +101Logit -0.2662 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nc58028Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-7PassLos Angeles Angels +129Model 44.8% · Market 41.4%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 45.7% · Market 40.9%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+129 → +134Logit -0.0212 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n99f77dStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-5PassOver 7.5 -116Model 61.1% · Market 51.4%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -112Model 59.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%-116 → -112Logit -0.0352 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n99f77dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-5PassNew York Yankees +114Model 51.3% · Market 44.7%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees +129Model 43.8% · Market 41.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.8%+114 → +129Logit -0.1152 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 8, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,656
Cumulative
-3.4%
Best day
-3.4%
Worst day
-3.4%
Settled bets
9

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.4%-0.7%-1.7%-2.8%-3.9%Aug 8Aug 17Aug 26

Daily bankroll return

+3.4%-3.4%Aug 8Aug 17Aug 26

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,653

-$347 · -3.5%

Bets
9
Record
2-7
Avg. policy Kelly
1.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $2,231 · tracked -$344 on $925 settled paper stake · -37.2% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,663

-$337 · -3.4%

Bets
9
Record
2-7
Avg. policy Kelly
0.9%

Full Kelly benchmark $2,315 · tracked -$335 on $822 settled paper stake · -40.8% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
13
Both cleared
4
Rate
30.8%