+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
25 games unified from 154 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-07.
Games25
Settled25
First edge+7.9%
Pregame edge+7.9%
Average CLV+0.3%
Totals CLV+0.2%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n3d4a0aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassMinnesota Twins +146Model 41.9% · Market 39.0%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +152Model 42.6% · Market 38.0%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+146 → +152Logit -0.040 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n3d4a0aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassOver 7.5 -3333Model 61.1% · Market 50.0%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 61.0% · Market 55.3%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.3%-3333 → -137Logit 0.213 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nff5519Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 47.3% · Market 38.6%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 49.1% · Market 34.2%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.4%+146 → +181Logit -0.192 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nff5519Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassChicago White Sox +114Model 51.9% · Market 44.3%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +124Model 48.3% · Market 42.8%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.5%+114 → +124Logit -0.063 | 10 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8c7139Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 8.5 +119Model 54.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 52.8% · Market 47.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%+119 → +101Logit 0.155 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8c7139Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 45.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 45.5% · Market 40.9%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+140 → +134Logit 0.042 | 10 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8c7139Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 14.8% · Market 9.4%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 14.8% · Market 9.4%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+945 → +945Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n952a91Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won1-13Paper stake $200 · P/L $304 | Paper betOver 9.5 +152Model 54.3% · Market 39.3%Edge +15.0% · Full Kelly 24.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 9.5 +146Model 54.3% · Market 39.8%Edge +14.5% · Full Kelly 23.1%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $86 | +0.5%+152 → +146Logit 0.020 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n952a91Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won1-13Paper stake $71 · P/L $210 | Paper betOver 11.5 +296Model 36.8% · Market 24.4%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $71 | Paper betOver 11.5 +296Model 36.8% · Market 24.4%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $87 | +0.0%+296 → +296Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n952a91Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-13 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 47.4% · Market 37.0%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 45.5% · Market 33.2%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%+159 → +189Logit -0.167 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n952a91Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won1-13Paper stake $11 · P/L $5 | Paper betOver 6.5 -239Model 78.2% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 26.0%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $11 | Paper betOver 6.5 -239Model 78.2% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 26.0%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $11 | +0.0%-239 → -239Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n952a91Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won1-13Paper stake $15 · P/L $14 | Paper betOver 8.5 -103Model 63.0% · Market 50.0%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 24.9%Policy Kelly 0.1% · $15 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 63.0% · Market 49.5%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 24.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-103 → -103Logit -0.022 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n952a91Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won1-13Paper stake $200 · P/L $135 | Paper betOver 7.5 -148Model 71.0% · Market 57.2%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 28.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 -148Model 71.0% · Market 57.2%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 28.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-148 → -148Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n952a91Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost1-13 | PassBoston Red Sox -263Model 74.0% · Market 69.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +229Model 33.9% · Market 29.3%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +229 | 10 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n82089eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost2-3Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betOver 7.5 -121Model 64.3% · Market 53.8%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 -121Model 64.3% · Market 53.8%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $186 | +0.0%-121 → -121Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n82089eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost2-3Paper stake $43 · P/L -$43 | Paper betOver 8.5 +114Model 55.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.4% · $43 | Paper betOver 8.5 +114Model 55.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $52 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n82089eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassAtlanta Braves +129Model 44.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +109Model 46.2% · Market 45.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.4%+129 → +109Logit 0.139 | 10 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nc5094aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 8.5 -1185Model 55.9% · Market 49.5%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 63.2% · Market 54.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.8%-1185 → -131Logit 0.191 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nc5094aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost3-5Paper stake $100 · P/L -$100 | Paper betOver 9.5 +124Model 54.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $100 | Paper betOver 9.5 +124Model 54.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $99 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nc5094aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassCincinnati Reds -103Model 48.2% · Market 48.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -126Model 57.5% · Market 52.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nc5094aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won3-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $119 | Paper betOver 7.5 -168Model 71.2% · Market 61.1%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 -168Model 71.2% · Market 61.1%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-168 → -168Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2dce20Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassToronto Blue Jays +181Model 38.9% · Market 33.9%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +181Model 39.2% · Market 34.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.3%+181 → +181Logit 0.014 | 10 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2dce20Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 39.8% · Market 36.1%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 38.7% · Market 33.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+166 → +189Logit -0.127 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n3027d9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassNew York Mets +119Model 48.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +114Model 48.5% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.038 | 10 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n3027d9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.1% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 7, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,444
- Cumulative
- +4.4%
- Best day
- +4.4%
- Worst day
- +4.4%
- Settled bets
- 9
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$443 · +4.4%
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.2%
Full Kelly benchmark $19,990 · tracked $444 on $1,039 settled paper stake · +42.8% ROI
+$302 · +3.0%
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.2%
Full Kelly benchmark $15,715 · tracked $305 on $920 settled paper stake · +33.2% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 8
- Both cleared
- 2
- Rate
- 25.0%