Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

11 games unified from 40 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-06.

Games11
Settled11
First edge+5.1%
Pregame edge+5.9%
Average CLV-0.4%
Totals CLV-0.6%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n45a3ebStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-3PassOver 8.5 -126Model 57.4% · Market 53.3%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -121Model 57.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%-126 → -121Logit -0.0383 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n45a3ebStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-3PassMinnesota Twins +105Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals -137Model 61.9% · Market 55.3%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1376 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n9e2302Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-11PassMiami Marlins +124Model 44.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +140Model 44.5% · Market 39.9%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%+124 → +140Logit -0.1186 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n9e2302Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-11PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 51.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 51.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n2bf425Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost11-12PassChicago White Sox +166Model 41.0% · Market 36.1%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox +159Model 41.0% · Market 36.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.6%+166 → +159Logit 0.0264 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n2bf425Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon11-12PassOver 10.5 +173Model 41.8% · Market 35.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +181Model 41.8% · Market 34.2%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%+173 → +181Logit -0.0442 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n2bf425Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedWon11-12Paper stake $200 · P/L $292Paper betOver 9.5 +146Model 50.6% · Market 40.3%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 9.5 +146Model 50.6% · Market 39.8%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $192-0.5%+146 → +146Logit -0.0214 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nef7380Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 57.3% · Market 57.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 57.3% · Market 56.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%-148 → -142Logit -0.0402 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nef7380Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost3-7Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betWashington Nationals +296Model 40.6% · Market 24.6%Edge +16.0% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betWashington Nationals +266Model 40.6% · Market 26.4%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+1.7%+296 → +266Logit 0.0924 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n6299c7Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon11-0PassSeattle Mariners -126Model 55.2% · Market 53.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 50.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-126 → +1054 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n6299c7Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost11-0PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 36.4% · Market 36.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 36.4% · Market 36.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+166 → +166Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 6, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$10,092
Cumulative
+0.9%
Best day
+0.9%
Worst day
+0.9%
Settled bets
2

Cumulative bankroll return

+1.0%+0.8%+0.5%+0.2%-0.1%Aug 6Aug 16Aug 27

Daily bankroll return

+0.9%-0.9%Aug 6Aug 16Aug 27

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $7,947 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $8,173 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · opening$10,292

+$292 · +2.9%

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $12,453 · tracked $292 on $200 settled paper stake · +146.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$10,281

+$281 · +2.8%

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Avg. policy Kelly
1.9%

Full Kelly benchmark $12,453 · tracked $281 on $192 settled paper stake · +146.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
5
Both cleared
1
Rate
20.0%