Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

29 games unified from 127 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-05.

Games29
Settled29
First edge+5.0%
Pregame edge+5.9%
Average CLV-1.4%
Totals CLV-1.9%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n857d23Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-4PassPittsburgh Pirates +109Model 46.9% · Market 45.3%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMilwaukee Brewers -131Model 59.5% · Market 54.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+109 → -1316 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n857d23Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-4PassOver 8.5 +140Model 57.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +17.5% · Full Kelly 27.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +159Model 55.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +18.8% · Full Kelly 28.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%+140 → +159Logit -0.1222 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n941ac3Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassOver 8.5 -137Model 56.9% · Market 55.3%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -116Model 58.6% · Market 51.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.9%-137 → -116Logit -0.1562 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n941ac3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-2PassMinnesota Twins -103Model 49.9% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMinnesota Twins +101Model 48.5% · Market 47.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.4%-103 → +101Logit -0.0576 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na5ab5eStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassOver 9.5 +129Model 46.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +146Model 45.0% · Market 39.0%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%+129 → +146Logit -0.1202 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na5ab5eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon1-4PassAtlanta Braves -131Model 56.2% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAtlanta Braves -131Model 57.0% · Market 53.8%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%-131 → -131Logit -0.0196 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na5ab5eStarts TotalOpening line 2.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassUnder 2.5 +3021Model 7.6% · Market 3.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 2.5 +3021Model 7.6% · Market 3.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+3021 → +3021Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nbed213Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-4PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.5% · Market 39.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +152Model 45.3% · Market 38.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+140 → +152Logit -0.0802 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nbed213Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon0-4PassBoston Red Sox -126Model 56.0% · Market 53.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBoston Red Sox -137Model 60.6% · Market 55.3%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.0%-126 → -137Logit 0.0796 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n1b9944Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-1PassOver 8.5 -121Model 54.0% · Market 52.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -103Model 52.9% · Market 48.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.8%-121 → -103Logit -0.1522 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n1b9944Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon3-1PassNew York Yankees -154Model 61.8% · Market 58.1%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 41.2% · Market 40.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-154 → +1346 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nb6623cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-3PassCincinnati Reds -142Model 60.7% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds -154Model 60.2% · Market 58.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%-142 → -154Logit 0.0776 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nb6623cStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 61.0% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 61.9% · Market 56.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-142 → -142Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nd4d5b4Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost10-4PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 73.9% · Market 65.2%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 73.2% · Market 65.8%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.6%-218 → -218Logit 0.0292 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nd4d5b4Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost10-4PassWashington Nationals +140Model 45.2% · Market 39.6%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPhiladelphia Phillies -199Model 67.0% · Market 63.3%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+140 → -1996 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf0486cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon6-5PassCleveland Guardians +101Model 57.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets -103Model 49.0% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+101 → -1036 decision snapshots
New York Mets at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf0486cStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassOver 9.5 +146Model 40.2% · Market 39.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +189Model 38.3% · Market 33.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-5.8%+146 → +189Logit -0.2502 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9d001dStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassOver 9.5 +152Model 45.0% · Market 37.7%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +173Model 42.6% · Market 35.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.5%+152 → +173Logit -0.1082 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9d001dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-5PassLos Angeles Angels +119Model 48.4% · Market 44.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassLos Angeles Angels +105Model 48.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.5%+119 → +105Logit 0.1026 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na64b89Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-0PassColorado Rockies +129Model 46.7% · Market 41.4%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays -168Model 62.4% · Market 59.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1688 decision snapshots
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na64b89Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-0PassUnder 11.5 -107Model 51.8% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1053 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n615e81Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-6PassTexas Rangers -175Model 63.4% · Market 61.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Francisco Giants +140Model 48.9% · Market 39.9%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1408 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n615e81Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-6Paper stake $168 · P/L -$168Paper betOver 9.5 +158Model 48.0% · Market 37.9%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $168PassOver 9.5 +152Model 48.0% · Market 38.0%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.1%+158 → +152Logit 0.0047 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n589b28Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Paper Kelly trackedLost6-7Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 79.3% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 79.3% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%-251 → -251Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n589b28Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost6-7PassLos Angeles Dodgers +101Model 49.3% · Market 47.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassLos Angeles Dodgers -103Model 53.9% · Market 48.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.4%+101 → -103Logit 0.0578 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n589b28Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-7PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 48.5% · Market 41.4%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 47.1% · Market 37.0%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.4%+129 → +159Logit -0.1853 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n589b28Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly trackedLost6-7Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 64.5% · Market 54.3%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 64.5% · Market 54.3%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9159c6Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-4PassOver 8.5 +101Model 51.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.0743 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9159c6Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon5-4PassToronto Blue Jays +140Model 42.0% · Market 39.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassToronto Blue Jays +189Model 40.9% · Market 33.2%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.7%+140 → +189Logit -0.2898 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 5, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,432
Cumulative
-5.7%
Best day
-5.7%
Worst day
-5.7%
Settled bets
3

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.7%-1.1%-2.8%-4.6%-6.4%Aug 5Aug 16Aug 27

Daily bankroll return

+5.7%-5.7%Aug 5Aug 16Aug 27

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,443

-$557 · -5.6%

Bets
3
Record
0-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.9%

Full Kelly benchmark $4,938 · tracked -$568 on $568 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,604

-$396 · -4.0%

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,821 · tracked -$400 on $400 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
13
Both cleared
4
Rate
30.8%