-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,311 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
18 games unified from 104 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-04.
Games18
Settled18
First edge+3.5%
Pregame edge+4.5%
Average CLV-0.3%
Totals CLV-0.9%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n1ecd11Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 59.0% · Market 57.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 61.0% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-148 → -142Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n1ecd11Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassKansas City Royals +124Model 45.4% · Market 42.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +124Model 45.8% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nf2eeafStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 53.3% · Market 42.8%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 55.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 23.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+124 → +140Logit -0.118 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nf2eeafStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -161Model 60.9% · Market 59.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -154Model 59.1% · Market 58.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-161 → -154Logit -0.039 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n2904e6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassMiami Marlins +114Model 46.7% · Market 44.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +129Model 45.2% · Market 41.9%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.5%+114 → +129Logit -0.100 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n2904e6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -126Model 56.0% · Market 53.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -131Model 56.1% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-126 → -131Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc83900Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-14 | PassChicago White Sox +105Model 47.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -154Model 58.6% · Market 57.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -154 | 10 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc83900Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-14 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 47.3% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 61.1% · Market 54.2%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nbf627bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassNew York Yankees -168Model 60.5% · Market 60.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +173Model 38.1% · Market 35.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +173 | 8 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nbf627bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 51.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 53.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+101 → +105Logit -0.038 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n166e36Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won0-5Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betWashington Nationals +252Model 40.5% · Market 27.4%Edge +13.1% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -306Model 74.2% · Market 72.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n166e36Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 58.6% · Market 58.1%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 46.3% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +124 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n345034Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassCincinnati Reds -137Model 59.9% · Market 55.3%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +114Model 47.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +114 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n345034Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.6% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.074 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n90697aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won6-2Paper stake $200 · P/L $218 | Paper betOver 7.5 +109Model 57.6% · Market 47.1%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 57.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+109 → +101Logit 0.020 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n90697aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassNew York Mets +124Model 44.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +114Model 46.4% · Market 44.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.5%+124 → +114Logit 0.063 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n864c61Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassBaltimore Orioles -137Model 57.8% · Market 55.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -161Model 64.9% · Market 59.1%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.8%-137 → -161Logit 0.154 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n864c61Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 49.4% · Market 41.9%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 4, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,018
- Cumulative
- +0.2%
- Best day
- +0.2%
- Worst day
- +0.2%
- Settled bets
- 2
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$218 · +2.2%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,038 · tracked $218 on $200 settled paper stake · +109.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 9
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 11.1%