+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
6 games unified from 34 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-03.
Games6
Settled6
First edge+3.6%
Pregame edge+5.1%
Average CLV-1.2%
Totals CLV+0.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66neb355dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +119Model 45.3% · Market 43.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +129Model 45.4% · Market 41.9%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.5%+119 → +129Logit -0.061 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66neb355dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 56.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 55.8% · Market 48.6%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n782ab6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-7 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 50.5% · Market 44.7%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 52.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n782ab6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won13-7 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +159Model 37.1% · Market 36.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +198Model 35.8% · Market 32.3%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.5%+159 → +198Logit -0.198 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n143ae8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 40.2% · Market 39.0%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -168Model 65.3% · Market 60.1%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n143ae8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassWashington Nationals +124Model 45.8% · Market 42.4%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +129Model 44.3% · Market 41.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+124 → +129Logit -0.039 | 8 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 3
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%