Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

43 games unified from 154 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-02.

Games43
Settled42
First edge+8.3%
Pregame edge+7.5%
Average CLV-0.1%
Totals CLV-0.1%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nc15dccStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-4PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.3% · Market 61.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.3% · Market 61.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-175 → -175Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nc15dccStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon8-4PassBoston Red Sox +142Model 41.8% · Market 40.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBoston Red Sox +152Model 42.5% · Market 38.0%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.5%+142 → +152Logit -0.1054 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nc15dccStarts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betLost8-4PassUnder 9 -105Model 52.2% · Market 48.9%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -114Model 53.6% · Market 50.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-105 → -1144 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n41e2c9Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedWon6-7Paper stake $77 · P/L $194Paper betOver 9.5 +252Model 37.6% · Market 27.4%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.8% · $77Paper betOver 9.5 +266Model 37.6% · Market 26.4%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $92-1.0%+252 → +266Logit -0.0512 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n41e2c9Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedWon6-7Paper stake $29 · P/L $51Paper betOver 8.5 +180Model 46.3% · Market 35.0%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.3% · $29Paper betOver 8.5 +180Model 46.3% · Market 35.0%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.3% · $29+0.0%+180 → +180Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n41e2c9Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-7PassOver 7.5 -102Model 51.5% · Market 48.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7 -110Model 60.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-102 → -1105 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n41e2c9Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedWon6-7Paper stake $100 · P/L $129Paper betOver 7.5 +129Model 55.1% · Market 42.3%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $100Paper betOver 7.5 +129Model 55.1% · Market 42.3%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $100+0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n41e2c9Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon6-7PassSeattle Mariners -134Model 59.8% · Market 56.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners -134Model 59.2% · Market 56.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-134 → -134Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nc4f7c0Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-5PassSan Francisco Giants +126Model 47.2% · Market 43.3%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Diego Padres -114Model 52.7% · Market 52.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+126 → -1144 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nc4f7c0Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-5PassUnder 8.5 -120Model 52.2% · Market 51.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8 -104Model 49.2% · Market 48.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-120 → -1045 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n7c22d2Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost11-0PassUnder 11.5 -122Model 77.3% · Market 52.4%Edge +24.9% · Full Kelly 49.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -118Model 67.6% · Market 51.5%Edge +16.1% · Full Kelly 29.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-122 → -1186 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n7c22d2Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon11-0PassDetroit Tigers -106Model 55.3% · Market 50.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassDetroit Tigers -114Model 55.6% · Market 52.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.6%-106 → -114Logit 0.0644 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nddd5c9Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon0-3PassLos Angeles Angels +198Model 44.9% · Market 33.0%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassLos Angeles Angels +194Model 45.6% · Market 33.4%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%+198 → +194Logit 0.0214 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nddd5c9Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-3PassOver 7.5 -124Model 66.5% · Market 52.8%Edge +13.7% · Full Kelly 24.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -102Model 64.2% · Market 48.1%Edge +16.1% · Full Kelly 27.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.7%-124 → -102Logit -0.1892 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3a76fbStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-8PassUnder 12.5 -110Model 63.5% · Market 50.0%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 23.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -112Model 54.4% · Market 50.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → -1127 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3a76fbStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-8PassColorado Rockies -110Model 52.4% · Market 51.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +110Model 47.4% · Market 46.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → +1104 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassOver 5.5 -168Model 76.0% · Market 60.1%Edge +15.9% · Full Kelly 35.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -175Model 76.0% · Market 61.0%Edge +15.0% · Full Kelly 34.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%-168 → -175Logit 0.0402 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassOver 6.5 -121Model 68.6% · Market 52.8%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 30.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -121Model 68.6% · Market 52.8%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 30.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-121 → -121Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-1Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betOver 7.5 +152Model 60.3% · Market 38.9%Edge +21.4% · Full Kelly 34.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 7.5 +146Model 60.3% · Market 39.8%Edge +20.5% · Full Kelly 33.1%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $186+1.0%+152 → +146Logit 0.0402 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-1PassChicago Cubs +116Model 49.6% · Market 45.4%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago Cubs +106Model 50.3% · Market 47.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.1%+116 → +106Logit 0.0854 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-1Paper stake $65 · P/L -$65Paper betOver 8.5 +206Model 51.5% · Market 32.1%Edge +19.4% · Full Kelly 28.0%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $65Paper betOver 8.5 +206Model 51.5% · Market 32.1%Edge +19.4% · Full Kelly 28.0%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $65+0.0%+206 → +206Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-1Paper stake $54 · P/L -$54Paper betOver 10.5 +425Model 34.2% · Market 18.5%Edge +15.7% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $54Paper betOver 10.5 +398Model 34.2% · Market 19.5%Edge +14.7% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.2% · $21+1.0%+425 → +398Logit 0.0652 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassOver 6.5 -115Model 73.4% · Market 51.1%Edge +22.3% · Full Kelly 42.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -124Model 68.6% · Market 52.8%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 29.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.7%-115 → -124Logit 0.0693 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n467385Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-1Paper stake $133 · P/L -$133Paper betOver 9.5 +313Model 42.7% · Market 23.4%Edge +19.3% · Full Kelly 24.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133Paper betOver 9.5 +296Model 42.7% · Market 24.4%Edge +18.3% · Full Kelly 23.3%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $118+1.0%+313 → +296Logit 0.0542 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf00775Starts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassOver 9 -102Model 54.1% · Market 48.1%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -118Model 55.0% · Market 51.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-102 → -1185 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf00775Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-7PassTexas Rangers +112Model 49.3% · Market 46.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTexas Rangers +120Model 49.1% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.4%+112 → +120Logit -0.0584 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2b7be6Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon9-1PassChicago White Sox +128Model 45.4% · Market 43.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox +126Model 45.2% · Market 43.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.2%+128 → +126Logit 0.0095 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2b7be6Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassOver 7.5 -122Model 59.7% · Market 52.4%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -106Model 56.2% · Market 49.1%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.2%-122 → -106Logit -0.1293 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n6e450eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-10PassPittsburgh Pirates +134Model 44.6% · Market 42.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPittsburgh Pirates +122Model 47.0% · Market 44.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.2%+134 → +122Logit 0.0895 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n6e450eStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-10PassOver 8.5 -105Model 58.8% · Market 48.9%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -120Model 53.5% · Market 51.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+3.0%-105 → -120Logit 0.1203 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n91ad06Starts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betLost0-5PassOver 8 -110Model 52.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 -105Model 55.3% · Market 48.9%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%-110 → -105Logit -0.0433 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n91ad06Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-5PassArizona Diamondbacks +128Model 45.7% · Market 43.1%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassArizona Diamondbacks +156Model 48.1% · Market 38.4%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.7%+128 → +156Logit -0.1946 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nd44eafStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-0PassMiami Marlins -116Model 53.1% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins -116Model 53.2% · Market 52.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.2%-116 → -116Logit -0.0105 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nd44eafStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-0PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 54.4% · Market 48.9%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -104Model 49.3% · Market 48.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.4%-105 → -104Logit -0.0174 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n3f8699Starts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betWon5-1PassUnder 9 -106Model 52.8% · Market 49.1%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +102Model 48.9% · Market 47.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-106 → +1025 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n3f8699Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon5-1PassToronto Blue Jays -110Model 52.7% · Market 51.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals +116Model 46.4% · Market 45.4%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → +1165 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n7e789cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassBaltimore Orioles +120Model 51.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles +126Model 50.7% · Market 43.4%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.3%+120 → +126Logit -0.0535 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n7e789cStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-0PassOver 7.5 -130Model 65.6% · Market 53.8%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 -110Model 59.2% · Market 50.0%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-130 → -1105 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n7e789cStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost8-0Paper stake $17 · P/L -$17Paper betOver 9.5 +173Model 45.2% · Market 35.2%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.2% · $17Paper betOver 9.5 +173Model 45.2% · Market 35.2%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133+0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n7e789cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost8-0Paper stake $127 · P/L -$127Paper betOver 8.5 +124Model 54.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $127Paper betOver 8.5 +124Model 54.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $127+0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n7e789cStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedWon8-0Paper stake $65 · P/L $56Paper betOver 7.5 -116Model 62.8% · Market 52.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $65Paper betOver 7.5 -116Model 62.8% · Market 52.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $65+0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd85274Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-4PassOver 8.5 -115Model 52.8% · Market 51.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +102Model 47.3% · Market 47.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-115 → +1022 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd85274Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-4PassAtlanta Braves -120Model 55.1% · Market 53.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAtlanta Braves -126Model 55.4% · Market 54.9%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.5%-120 → -126Logit 0.0594 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 2, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,834
Cumulative
-1.7%
Best day
-1.7%
Worst day
-1.7%
Settled bets
10

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.2%-0.3%-0.8%-1.3%-1.9%Aug 2Aug 15Aug 28

Daily bankroll return

+1.7%-1.7%Aug 2Aug 15Aug 28

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,828

-$172 · -1.7%

Bets
10
Record
4-6
Avg. policy Kelly
0.9%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,292 · tracked -$166 on $866 settled paper stake · -19.2% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,822

-$178 · -1.8%

Bets
10
Record
4-6
Avg. policy Kelly
0.9%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,743 · tracked -$171 on $936 settled paper stake · -18.3% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
15
Both cleared
3
Rate
20.0%