Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

29 games unified from 100 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-01.

Games29
Settled29
First edge+9.9%
Pregame edge+10.5%
Average CLV-0.4%
Totals CLV-0.4%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n566963Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon12-8PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.1% · Market 48.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.6% · Market 48.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n566963Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon12-8PassArizona Diamondbacks +142Model 46.4% · Market 40.5%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassArizona Diamondbacks +158Model 47.2% · Market 38.0%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.5%+142 → +158Logit -0.1064 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n61aab2Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-8PassWashington Nationals +170Model 47.0% · Market 36.4%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 15.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +148Model 45.7% · Market 39.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+3.2%+170 → +148Logit 0.1376 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n61aab2Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-8PassUnder 9.5 -124Model 55.9% · Market 52.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -110Model 53.0% · Market 50.0%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.8%-124 → -110Logit -0.1123 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-5PassChicago Cubs +114Model 51.3% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees +114Model 48.9% · Market 45.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → +1144 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-5PassOver 4.5 -263Model 83.3% · Market 69.7%Edge +13.6% · Full Kelly 39.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -263Model 83.3% · Market 69.7%Edge +13.6% · Full Kelly 39.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-263 → -263Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-5Paper stake $142 · P/L -$142Paper betOver 11.5 +841Model 27.7% · Market 10.4%Edge +17.3% · Full Kelly 19.1%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142Paper betOver 11.5 +945Model 27.7% · Market 9.4%Edge +18.3% · Full Kelly 20.0%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $180-1.0%+841 → +945Logit -0.1152 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-5Paper stake $187 · P/L -$187Paper betOver 7.5 +180Model 61.7% · Market 35.0%Edge +26.7% · Full Kelly 40.5%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $187Paper betOver 7.5 +180Model 61.7% · Market 35.0%Edge +26.7% · Full Kelly 40.5%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $170+0.0%+180 → +180Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-5PassOver 5.5 -137Model 77.2% · Market 56.3%Edge +20.8% · Full Kelly 45.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -137Model 77.2% · Market 56.3%Edge +20.8% · Full Kelly 45.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-137 → -137Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Paper Kelly trackedWon2-5Paper stake $136 · P/L $155Paper betOver 6.5 +114Model 69.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +23.2% · Full Kelly 43.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $136Paper betOver 6.5 +114Model 69.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +23.2% · Full Kelly 43.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $136+0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-5Paper stake $82 · P/L -$82Paper betOver 9.5 +373Model 44.2% · Market 20.5%Edge +23.7% · Full Kelly 29.2%Policy Kelly 0.8% · $82Paper betOver 9.5 +373Model 44.2% · Market 20.5%Edge +23.7% · Full Kelly 29.2%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $49+0.0%+373 → +373Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-5PassOver 6.5 -104Model 70.1% · Market 48.5%Edge +21.6% · Full Kelly 39.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 +100Model 69.9% · Market 47.6%Edge +22.3% · Full Kelly 39.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%-104 → +100Logit -0.0346 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassOver 10.5 +529Model 35.6% · Market 15.5%Edge +20.1% · Full Kelly 23.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +529Model 35.6% · Market 15.5%Edge +20.1% · Full Kelly 23.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+529 → +529Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-5PassOver 8.5 +240Model 53.0% · Market 28.3%Edge +24.7% · Full Kelly 33.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +240Model 53.0% · Market 28.3%Edge +24.7% · Full Kelly 33.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+240 → +240Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nd3c8dfStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-5PassOver 3.5 -404Model 88.3% · Market 77.6%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 41.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -404Model 88.3% · Market 77.6%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 41.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-404 → -404Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9c4234Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-5PassOver 8.5 -102Model 53.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -102Model 51.6% · Market 48.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-102 → -102Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9c4234Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-5PassHouston Astros +110Model 49.4% · Market 46.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassHouston Astros +110Model 49.6% · Market 46.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+110 → +110Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n8248bcStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-0PassOver 8.5 +102Model 52.4% · Market 47.2%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 -120Model 58.4% · Market 51.9%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+102 → -1205 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n8248bcStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost5-0PassBaltimore Orioles +120Model 47.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles +128Model 48.7% · Market 43.1%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.5%+120 → +128Logit -0.0614 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nfa3a84Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-1PassCincinnati Reds +106Model 51.4% · Market 47.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +108Model 51.0% · Market 47.0%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.6%+106 → +108Logit -0.0264 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nfa3a84Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-1PassOver 8.5 -106Model 53.4% · Market 49.1%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 -115Model 58.4% · Market 51.1%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-106 → -1155 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n143aeeStarts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassOver 8 -102Model 51.5% · Market 48.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +100Model 57.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-102 → +1004 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n143aeeStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-4PassMinnesota Twins +150Model 43.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMinnesota Twins +148Model 44.8% · Market 39.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.4%+150 → +148Logit 0.0184 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3a7f0eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-1PassChicago White Sox +148Model 46.8% · Market 39.6%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox +146Model 45.5% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.3%+148 → +146Logit 0.0135 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3a7f0eStarts TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 8 -115Model 52.9% · Market 51.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -114Model 58.5% · Market 50.9%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-115 → -1146 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n7cf763Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon6-2PassMiami Marlins +118Model 52.3% · Market 45.1%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +118Model 52.5% · Market 45.1%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+118 → +118Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n7cf763Starts TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no betWon6-2PassUnder 9 -118Model 56.8% · Market 51.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9 -115Model 53.6% · Market 51.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.4%-118 → -115Logit -0.0172 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n4d5516Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-5PassSt. Louis Cardinals +126Model 48.9% · Market 43.4%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals +142Model 48.1% · Market 40.5%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%+126 → +142Logit -0.1194 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n4d5516Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassOver 8.5 -110Model 51.0% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8 -110Model 54.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-110 → -1104 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 1, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,743
Cumulative
-2.6%
Best day
-2.6%
Worst day
-2.6%
Settled bets
4

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.3%-0.5%-1.3%-2.1%-2.9%Aug 1Aug 14Aug 28

Daily bankroll return

+2.6%-2.6%Aug 1Aug 14Aug 28

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,742

-$258 · -2.6%

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.4%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,103 · tracked -$257 on $547 settled paper stake · -47.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,754

-$246 · -2.5%

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.3%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,043 · tracked -$245 on $535 settled paper stake · -45.7% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
10
Both cleared
3
Rate
30.0%