Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

19 games unified from 64 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-31.

Games19
Settled19
First edge+4.6%
Pregame edge+4.8%
Average CLV-0.3%
Totals CLV-0.0%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncff2b1Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-6PassOver 7.5 -175Model 63.8% · Market 61.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -183Model 64.8% · Market 62.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.0%-175 → -183Logit 0.0403 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncff2b1Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-6PassWashington Nationals +109Model 46.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAtlanta Braves -121Model 53.9% · Market 52.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+109 → -1214 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n5e8308Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost6-1PassChicago White Sox +124Model 43.7% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 58.2% · Market 55.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+124 → -1375 decision snapshots
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n5e8308Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-1PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n859703Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.7% · Market 58.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 59.3% · Market 59.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%-161 → -161Logit 0.0212 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n859703Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-1PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 46.6% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassArizona Diamondbacks +119Model 46.7% · Market 43.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%+109 → +119Logit -0.0814 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na0b79cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-2PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 56.3% · Market 51.4%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 54.1% · Market 49.5%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.0794 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na0b79cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon5-2PassMiami Marlins +109Model 50.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +101Model 51.7% · Market 47.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.0744 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-3Paper stake $160 · P/L -$160Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 43.4% · Market 32.1%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $160Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 43.4% · Market 32.1%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $100+0.0%+206 → +206Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-3Paper stake $95 · P/L -$95Paper betOver 8.5 +146Model 52.2% · Market 39.8%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $95PassOver 8.5 +140Model 52.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.1%+146 → +140Logit 0.0044 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-3PassSt. Louis Cardinals +146Model 46.0% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals +159Model 45.4% · Market 37.0%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+146 → +159Logit -0.0824 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-3Paper stake $54 · P/L -$54Paper betOver 7.5 -103Model 61.0% · Market 49.1%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $54Paper betOver 7.5 +101Model 61.0% · Market 48.1%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 22.3%Policy Kelly 0.4% · $41-1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.0402 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassOver 4.5 -489Model 82.8% · Market 80.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -489Model 82.8% · Market 80.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-489 → -489Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n2a2464Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-6PassOver 8.5 -137Model 54.8% · Market 54.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-137 → +1092 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n2a2464Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-6PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%-103 → -103Logit 0.0194 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n5f6bf9Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon7-8PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 51.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 53.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.4%+105 → +105Logit 0.0174 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n5f6bf9Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-8PassOver 8.5 +124Model 54.8% · Market 42.8%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +119Model 48.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.0%+124 → +119Logit 0.0403 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n575397Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-0PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 61.8% · Market 61.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +173Model 37.5% · Market 35.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1733 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n575397Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-0PassNew York Yankees +124Model 47.8% · Market 42.4%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees +140Model 41.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.5%+124 → +140Logit -0.1026 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 31, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,691
Cumulative
-3.1%
Best day
-3.1%
Worst day
-3.1%
Settled bets
3

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.4%-0.6%-1.5%-2.5%-3.5%Jul 31Aug 14Aug 28

Daily bankroll return

+3.1%-3.1%Jul 31Aug 14Aug 28

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,694

-$306 · -3.1%

Bets
3
Record
0-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,366 · tracked -$309 on $309 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,859

-$141 · -1.4%

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Avg. policy Kelly
0.7%

Full Kelly benchmark $6,535 · tracked -$141 on $141 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
8
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%