Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

21 games unified from 96 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-30.

Games21
Settled21
First edge+6.2%
Pregame edge+6.5%
Average CLV+0.4%
Totals CLV+0.1%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Paper Kelly trackedWon4-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $80Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 78.9% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 78.9% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $59+0.0%-251 → -251Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-5PassOver 9.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 55.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-112 → +1054 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-5PassWashington Nationals +124Model 46.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +134Model 43.3% · Market 40.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+124 → +134Logit -0.0766 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly trackedWon4-5Paper stake $153 · P/L $121Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 63.9% · Market 53.9%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $153Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 63.9% · Market 53.9%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $153+0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts TotalOpening line 13.5Paper Kelly trackedWon4-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $59Paper betUnder 13.5 -340Model 84.7% · Market 74.6%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betUnder 13.5 -340Model 84.7% · Market 74.6%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%-340 → -340Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n09ca0aStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-4PassMiami Marlins +109Model 51.5% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +105Model 52.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.0376 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n09ca0aStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost2-4Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betOver 7.5 +119Model 55.5% · Market 44.7%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 7.5 +114Model 55.5% · Market 45.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $165+0.5%+119 → +114Logit 0.0206 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64cbdeStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 52.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%-112 → -103Logit -0.0794 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64cbdeStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-3PassPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 51.6% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 49.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → +1016 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6875ecStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-2PassChicago Cubs +101Model 48.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals -112Model 51.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+101 → -1126 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6875ecStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 45.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 46.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.0383 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-2PassNew York Yankees -107Model 51.0% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees -103Model 50.5% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%-107 → -103Logit -0.0356 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-2Paper stake $164 · P/L -$164Paper betOver 5.5 -239Model 77.8% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $164PassOver 5.5 -239Model 77.8% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-239 → -239Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.3% · Market 25.4%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.3% · Market 25.4%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+280 → +280Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-2Paper stake $166 · P/L -$166Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 44.9% · Market 32.6%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $166Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 44.9% · Market 32.1%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $126-0.5%+206 → +206Logit -0.0234 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost1-2Paper stake $50 · P/L -$50Paper betOver 7.5 +101Model 62.5% · Market 48.5%Edge +14.0% · Full Kelly 25.4%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $50Paper betOver 7.5 +105Model 62.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $176-0.9%+101 → +105Logit -0.0386 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassOver 8.5 +140Model 53.8% · Market 40.8%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +140Model 53.8% · Market 41.3%Edge +12.5% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%+140 → +140Logit 0.0194 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n6e8cdfStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.2% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1143 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n6e8cdfStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-4PassKansas City Royals +119Model 46.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +114Model 47.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.0386 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n87180dStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.1% · Market 61.0%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.7% · Market 63.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.9%-175 → -199Logit 0.1233 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n87180dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-3PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 58.0% · Market 55.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays -175Model 62.6% · Market 61.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+5.7%-137 → -175Logit 0.2355 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 30, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,680
Cumulative
-3.2%
Best day
-3.2%
Worst day
-3.2%
Settled bets
7

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.4%-0.6%-1.6%-2.6%-3.6%Jul 30Aug 13Aug 28

Daily bankroll return

+3.2%-3.2%Jul 30Aug 13Aug 28

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,679

-$321 · -3.2%

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Avg. policy Kelly
1.6%

Full Kelly benchmark $5,226 · tracked -$320 on $1,132 settled paper stake · -28.2% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,736

-$264 · -2.6%

Bets
6
Record
3-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.5%

Full Kelly benchmark $6,937 · tracked -$263 on $877 settled paper stake · -30.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
7
Both cleared
1
Rate
14.3%