Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

30 games unified from 119 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-29.

Games30
Settled30
First edge+4.3%
Pregame edge+4.6%
Average CLV-0.4%
Totals CLV-0.2%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66ne00d86Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-3PassSt. Louis Cardinals +101Model 50.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago Cubs -107Model 50.4% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+101 → -1076 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66ne00d86Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-3PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.6% · Market 53.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -116Model 54.9% · Market 51.4%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.3%-131 → -116Logit -0.0943 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66naaa850Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-0PassOver 8.5 -112Model 57.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -131Model 57.7% · Market 54.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+4.2%-112 → -131Logit 0.1703 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66naaa850Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-0PassKansas City Royals +146Model 42.5% · Market 39.0%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +166Model 36.5% · Market 36.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%+146 → +166Logit -0.1236 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66naaa850Starts TotalOpening line 2.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-0PassUnder 2.5 +2243Model 6.3% · Market 4.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 2.5 +2243Model 6.3% · Market 4.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+2243 → +2243Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne3eb8eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost5-6PassChicago White Sox +124Model 46.7% · Market 43.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees -148Model 57.8% · Market 57.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+124 → -1486 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne3eb8eStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon5-6PassOver 7.5 -107Model 63.7% · Market 49.5%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 24.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -103Model 61.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 22.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%-107 → -103Logit -0.0353 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-0PassOver 8.5 +146Model 46.8% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +146Model 46.8% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+146 → +146Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-0PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 15.1% · Market 14.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 15.1% · Market 14.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+574 → +574Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n770d5dStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost6-1PassOver 10.5 +159Model 41.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +181Model 40.1% · Market 34.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%+159 → +181Logit -0.1253 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n770d5dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost6-1PassCincinnati Reds +114Model 46.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +119Model 47.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+114 → +119Logit -0.0386 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66na0ba1fStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-3PassOver 9.5 +181Model 40.4% · Market 34.2%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +189Model 36.6% · Market 33.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+181 → +189Logit -0.0423 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66na0ba1fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon0-3PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 56.5% · Market 55.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays -148Model 57.9% · Market 57.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%-137 → -148Logit 0.0786 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nd03090Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-3PassSan Diego Padres -142Model 61.4% · Market 56.8%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +152Model 40.0% · Market 38.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-142 → +1524 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nd03090Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.2% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 54.3% · Market 52.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.8%-131 → -121Logit -0.0742 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n021d1eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-16PassMilwaukee Brewers -126Model 53.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMilwaukee Brewers -112Model 54.0% · Market 50.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.8%-126 → -112Logit -0.1114 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n021d1eStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-16PassOver 8.5 +129Model 47.2% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.4% · Market 43.4%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.5%+129 → +119Logit 0.0612 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6a5d97Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon10-9PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 55.0% · Market 54.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +129Model 45.9% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-137 → +1293 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6a5d97Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon10-9PassBaltimore Orioles +140Model 39.9% · Market 39.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles +159Model 39.8% · Market 37.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.5%+140 → +159Logit -0.1076 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66ne03ba0Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon2-3PassNew York Mets -103Model 48.9% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets -107Model 55.3% · Market 49.5%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%-103 → -107Logit 0.0356 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66ne03ba0Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 52.4% · Market 51.4%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 52.1% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%-116 → -112Logit -0.0354 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na76cd5Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-2PassOver 10.5 +134Model 41.5% · Market 40.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +129Model 47.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%+134 → +129Logit 0.0393 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na76cd5Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost5-2PassWashington Nationals +101Model 54.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +101Model 54.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-0Paper stake $136 · P/L -$136Paper betOver 9.5 +134Model 52.0% · Market 41.3%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $136Paper betOver 9.5 +140Model 52.0% · Market 41.3%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $177-0.1%+134 → +140Logit -0.0024 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon3-0PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 47.0% · Market 44.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 47.3% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.4%+114 → +114Logit 0.0156 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-0Paper stake $62 · P/L -$62Paper betOver 7.5 -154Model 69.0% · Market 58.7%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $62Paper betOver 7.5 -148Model 69.0% · Market 58.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $72-0.1%-154 → -148Logit -0.0024 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassOver 8.5 +101Model 58.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -116Model 60.7% · Market 51.4%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+3.8%+101 → -116Logit 0.1523 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n42f611Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedWon6-8Paper stake $200 · P/L $280Paper betMiami Marlins +140Model 50.6% · Market 39.6%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betMiami Marlins +140Model 50.6% · Market 39.6%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.0005 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n42f611Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-8PassOver 8.5 +109Model 45.6% · Market 44.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +134Model 47.2% · Market 40.9%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.0%+109 → +134Logit -0.1633 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-0PassNew York Mets +134Model 46.4% · Market 40.9%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets +134Model 46.4% · Market 40.9%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.0005 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 29, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$10,082
Cumulative
+0.8%
Best day
+0.8%
Worst day
+0.8%
Settled bets
3

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.9%+0.7%+0.4%+0.1%-0.1%Jul 29Aug 13Aug 28

Daily bankroll return

+0.8%-0.8%Jul 29Aug 13Aug 28

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,280

+$280 · +2.8%

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $12,144 · tracked $280 on $200 settled paper stake · +140.0% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$10,280

+$280 · +2.8%

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $12,144 · tracked $280 on $200 settled paper stake · +140.0% ROI

Totals · opening$9,803

-$197 · -2.0%

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Avg. policy Kelly
1.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $6,615 · tracked -$198 on $198 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,752

-$248 · -2.5%

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Avg. policy Kelly
1.2%

Full Kelly benchmark $6,341 · tracked -$249 on $249 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
13
Both cleared
2
Rate
15.4%