Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

37 games unified from 150 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-28.

Games37
Settled35
First edge+7.6%
Pregame edge+8.6%
Average CLV-0.1%
Totals CLV+0.1%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3819efStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost10-2PassChicago Cubs -112Model 50.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 51.3% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-112 → -1076 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3819efStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost10-2PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 40.5% · Market 29.3%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 40.5% · Market 29.3%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+229 → +229Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3819efStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost10-2PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 49.3% · Market 39.0%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 49.3% · Market 39.0%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+146 → +146Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3819efStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost10-2Paper stake $43 · P/L -$43Paper betUnder 8.5 +109Model 58.1% · Market 47.1%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 19.7%Policy Kelly 0.4% · $43PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 58.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%+109 → +105Logit 0.0197 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3819efStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Paper Kelly trackedLost10-2Paper stake $154 · P/L -$154Paper betUnder 4.5 +685Model 24.6% · Market 12.4%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $154Paper betUnder 4.5 +685Model 24.6% · Market 12.4%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%+685 → +685Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3819efStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly trackedLost10-2Paper stake $67 · P/L -$67Paper betUnder 10.5 -191Model 74.2% · Market 64.0%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 25.0%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $67Paper betUnder 10.5 -191Model 74.2% · Market 64.0%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 25.0%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $50+0.0%-191 → -191Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3819efStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Paper Kelly trackedLost10-2Paper stake $87 · P/L -$87Paper betUnder 3.5 +1241Model 18.2% · Market 7.3%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $87Paper betUnder 3.5 +1241Model 18.2% · Market 7.3%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $167+0.0%+1241 → +1241Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n9091a7Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-2Paper stake $144 · P/L -$144Paper betOver 9.5 +180Model 45.5% · Market 34.9%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $144Paper betOver 9.5 +188Model 45.5% · Market 34.5%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $172-0.3%+180 → +188Logit -0.0146 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n9091a7Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon3-2PassChicago White Sox +114Model 45.8% · Market 45.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees -116Model 54.7% · Market 51.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1166 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n9091a7Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-2Paper stake $191 · P/L -$191Paper betOver 7.5 -116Model 63.0% · Market 51.9%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 20.1%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $191PassOver 7.5 -116Model 63.0% · Market 51.9%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 20.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n9091a7Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-2Paper stake $151 · P/L -$151Paper betOver 8.5 +129Model 54.3% · Market 42.7%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $151Paper betOver 8.5 +129Model 54.3% · Market 42.7%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $49+0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nee7929Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost2-3PassKansas City Royals +129Model 45.9% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +152Model 46.3% · Market 38.0%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.8%+129 → +152Logit -0.1606 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nee7929Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-3PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 43.6% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 46.7% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+124 → +114Logit 0.0783 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassNew York Mets +134Model 46.7% · Market 40.9%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Mets +134Model 46.7% · Market 40.9%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +140Model 47.5% · Market 39.9%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +140Model 47.5% · Market 39.9%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na71ca8Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon0-2PassCleveland Guardians -126Model 53.8% · Market 52.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +119Model 47.1% · Market 43.4%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-126 → +1194 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na71ca8Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-2PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.2% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +119Model 48.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+114 → +119Logit -0.0382 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-8PassOver 12.5 +331Model 37.0% · Market 22.4%Edge +14.5% · Full Kelly 18.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +331Model 37.0% · Market 22.4%Edge +14.5% · Full Kelly 18.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+331 → +331Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-8PassOver 10.5 +159Model 45.1% · Market 36.7%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +166Model 54.5% · Market 36.1%Edge +18.4% · Full Kelly 27.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.6%+159 → +166Logit -0.0265 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-8PassOver 5.5 -404Model 89.0% · Market 77.6%Edge +11.5% · Full Kelly 44.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -404Model 89.0% · Market 77.6%Edge +11.5% · Full Kelly 44.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-404 → -404Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedWon6-8Paper stake $200 · P/L $268Paper betOver 9.5 +134Model 63.2% · Market 42.3%Edge +20.9% · Full Kelly 35.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 9.5 +134Model 63.2% · Market 41.8%Edge +21.4% · Full Kelly 35.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200-0.5%+134 → +134Logit -0.0194 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedWon6-8Paper stake $164 · P/L $106Paper betOver 7.5 -155Model 78.3% · Market 59.7%Edge +18.6% · Full Kelly 44.6%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $164Paper betOver 7.5 -161Model 78.3% · Market 60.2%Edge +18.1% · Full Kelly 43.3%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $120+0.5%-155 → -161Logit 0.0204 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-8PassOver 6.5 -276Model 84.3% · Market 70.7%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 40.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -276Model 84.3% · Market 70.7%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 40.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-276 → -276Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly trackedWon6-8Paper stake $114 · P/L $288Paper betOver 11.5 +252Model 45.7% · Market 27.4%Edge +18.3% · Full Kelly 24.1%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $114Paper betOver 11.5 +252Model 45.7% · Market 27.4%Edge +18.3% · Full Kelly 24.1%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $125+0.0%+252 → +252Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost6-8PassToronto Blue Jays +119Model 43.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassToronto Blue Jays +119Model 45.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8dd5d8Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedWon6-8Paper stake $200 · P/L $172Paper betOver 8.5 -116Model 71.2% · Market 52.9%Edge +18.3% · Full Kelly 37.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200PassOver 8.5 -126Model 71.2% · Market 54.3%Edge +16.9% · Full Kelly 34.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.5%-116 → -126Logit 0.0584 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3b686fStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-1PassOver 8.5 +105Model 47.4% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 56.5% · Market 53.3%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1264 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3b686fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-1PassTexas Rangers +146Model 41.4% · Market 39.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays -175Model 62.7% · Market 61.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1756 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n62d3b5Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-14PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 50.4% · Market 42.8%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 51.7% · Market 42.8%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n62d3b5Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-14PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 45.6% · Market 44.3%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles +124Model 46.0% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.5%+114 → +124Logit -0.0636 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ncedb54Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 45.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 46.6% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+114 → +124Logit -0.0783 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ncedb54Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost8-7PassPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 57.1% · Market 51.4%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 57.0% · Market 51.4%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ncedb54Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-7PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 16.4% · Market 10.4%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 16.4% · Market 10.4%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+841 → +841Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ned9ce0Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost0-1PassMiami Marlins -116Model 51.2% · Market 50.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPhiladelphia Phillies +114Model 48.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → +1146 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ned9ce0Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 66.1% · Market 61.0%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 63.8% · Market 63.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%-175 → -191Logit 0.0823 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n4a2970Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon6-5PassCincinnati Reds -154Model 59.9% · Market 58.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCleveland Guardians +134Model 49.8% · Market 40.5%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-154 → +1343 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n4a2970Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon6-5PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.0001 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 28, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,999
Cumulative
-0.0%
Best day
-0.0%
Worst day
-0.0%
Settled bets
11

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.1%+0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%Jul 28Aug 12Aug 28

Daily bankroll return

+0.5%-0.5%Jul 28Aug 12Aug 28

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,983

-$17 · -0.2%

Bets
11
Record
4-7
Avg. policy Kelly
1.4%

Full Kelly benchmark $10,246 · tracked -$1 on $1,514 settled paper stake · -0.1% ROI

Totals · pregame$10,006

+$6 · +0.1%

Bets
8
Record
3-5
Avg. policy Kelly
1.4%

Full Kelly benchmark $11,688 · tracked $20 on $1,083 settled paper stake · +1.8% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
11
Both cleared
2
Rate
18.2%