+$318 · +3.2%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,846 · tracked $318 on $200 settled paper stake · +159.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
19 games unified from 70 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-27.
Games19
Settled16
First edge+4.8%
Pregame edge+5.2%
Average CLV-0.7%
Totals CLV-0.7%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66ndadc42Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -103Model 49.2% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +105Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-103 → +105Logit -0.077 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66ndadc42Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won7-3Paper stake $200 · P/L $96 | Paper betUnder 11.5 -208Model 79.5% · Market 64.8%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 36.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betUnder 11.5 -208Model 79.5% · Market 64.8%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 36.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-208 → -208Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66ndadc42Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 17.3% · Market 5.3%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 17.3% · Market 5.3%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+1775 → +1775Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nf3eeeaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 48.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 48.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nf3eeeaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 55.9% · Market 49.5%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 56.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%-107 → +101Logit -0.074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n4a2970Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +140Model 49.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +134Model 47.8% · Market 40.9%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+140 → +134Logit 0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n4a2970Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 44.1% · Market 40.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 47.8% · Market 39.0%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+134 → +146Logit -0.081 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nea1231Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-14 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 39.7% · Market 38.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 60.3% · Market 58.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nea1231Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-14 | PassAtlanta Braves -116Model 53.8% · Market 51.4%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -107Model 54.0% · Market 49.5%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.079 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nde018aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 16.4% · Market 16.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -719Model 84.7% · Market 84.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -719 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nde018aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassWashington Nationals -131Model 54.6% · Market 54.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -126Model 53.4% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-131 → -126Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n39d9adStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 55.3% · Market 51.4%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 53.0% · Market 51.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n39d9adStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won7-8Paper stake $200 · P/L $318 | Paper betMiami Marlins +159Model 49.6% · Market 36.7%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +159Model 49.6% · Market 36.7%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+159 → +159Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6006adStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 53.3% · Market 51.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6006adStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 57.6% · Market 57.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 57.1% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-148 → -142Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd0bf88Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 39.0% · Market 37.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -154Model 60.0% · Market 58.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd0bf88Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +105Model 46.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -121Model 53.4% · Market 51.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -121 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nfee1efStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassSeattle Mariners -131Model 53.9% · Market 53.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +109Model 47.7% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +109 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nfee1efStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won3-7Paper stake $200 · P/L $332 | Paper betOver 9.5 +166Model 51.2% · Market 36.1%Edge +15.1% · Full Kelly 21.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 9.5 +166Model 51.2% · Market 36.1%Edge +15.1% · Full Kelly 21.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+166 → +166Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 27, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,746
- Cumulative
- +7.5%
- Best day
- +7.5%
- Worst day
- +7.5%
- Settled bets
- 3
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$318 · +3.2%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,846 · tracked $318 on $200 settled paper stake · +159.0% ROI
+$431 · +4.3%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $16,010 · tracked $428 on $400 settled paper stake · +107.0% ROI
+$431 · +4.3%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $16,010 · tracked $428 on $400 settled paper stake · +107.0% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 9
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 11.1%