-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,637 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
30 games unified from 112 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-26.
Games30
Settled30
First edge+5.8%
Pregame edge+5.9%
Average CLV+0.2%
Totals CLV+0.9%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n1d0a01Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost4-11Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betNew York Yankees +166Model 46.1% · Market 35.8%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betNew York Yankees +166Model 46.1% · Market 35.8%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+166 → +166Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n1d0a01Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-11 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 45.8%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc9719fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassLos Angeles Angels -103Model 49.3% · Market 48.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants -103Model 51.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc9719fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 38.4% · Market 35.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 36.6% · Market 32.3%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+173 → +198Logit -0.131 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5d554aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassSeattle Mariners -112Model 50.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -112Model 51.5% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -112 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n5d554aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won6-4Paper stake $200 · P/L $130 | Paper betOver 6.5 -154Model 77.7% · Market 58.1%Edge +19.6% · Full Kelly 43.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 6.5 -154Model 77.7% · Market 58.1%Edge +19.6% · Full Kelly 43.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-154 → -154Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n2a8ba6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -137Model 58.7% · Market 54.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -131Model 58.0% · Market 54.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-137 → -131Logit -0.019 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n2a8ba6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 54.8% · Market 49.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.8% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n3e6749Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-11 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 60.6% · Market 42.8%Edge +17.8% · Full Kelly 28.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 58.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+124 → +114Logit 0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n3e6749Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost2-11 | PassColorado Rockies +252Model 37.2% · Market 27.1%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +280Model 37.3% · Market 25.2%Edge +12.1% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+252 → +280Logit -0.102 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5aa01Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost8-11 | PassMinnesota Twins -137Model 57.4% · Market 55.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +134Model 42.8% · Market 40.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5aa01Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -121Model 53.1% · Market 51.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 65.8% · Market 55.3%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.4%-121 → -137Logit 0.137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nf44eb6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won3-12 | PassChicago White Sox -112Model 51.9% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -107Model 51.8% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.044 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nf44eb6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-12 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 61.1% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 60.7% · Market 55.3%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-142 → -137Logit -0.038 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n410259Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 61.3% · Market 58.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 62.9% · Market 59.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-154 → -161Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n410259Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassMiami Marlins -131Model 59.1% · Market 54.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -121Model 58.9% · Market 52.4%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%-131 → -121Logit -0.074 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n568f92Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassKansas City Royals +152Model 38.9% · Market 38.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +159Model 39.1% · Market 37.0%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+152 → +159Logit -0.042 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n568f92Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -126Model 58.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 62.3% · Market 56.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%-126 → -142Logit 0.118 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nfd5a28Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-8 | PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 55.9% · Market 42.8%Edge +13.1% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 55.0% · Market 48.6%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.8%+124 → -103Logit 0.234 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nfd5a28Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-8 | PassNew York Mets +134Model 43.3% · Market 40.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Dodgers -154Model 58.2% · Market 58.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e8560Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -126Model 54.9% · Market 52.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +114Model 48.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e8560Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 50.1% · Market 41.9%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 51.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+129 → +124Logit 0.038 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n30a553Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 55.2% · Market 50.0%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -107Model 54.3% · Market 49.5%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%-112 → -107Logit -0.022 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n30a553Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 8.5 -116Model 63.3% · Market 51.4%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -126Model 60.5% · Market 53.3%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%-116 → -126Logit 0.077 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3f06ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassBoston Red Sox -137Model 58.9% · Market 55.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -142Model 58.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-137 → -142Logit 0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3f06ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-6Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betOver 7.5 -107Model 62.7% · Market 49.5%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 -107Model 62.7% · Market 49.5%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8bc2f4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassWashington Nationals +101Model 53.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -103Model 53.6% · Market 48.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n8bc2f4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -126Model 56.6% · Market 53.3%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -121Model 57.3% · Market 52.4%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-126 → -121Logit -0.038 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n14ea83Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassOver 6.5 -137Model 61.5% · Market 55.3%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -131Model 59.6% · Market 54.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-137 → -131Logit -0.043 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n14ea83Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassTampa Bay Rays -142Model 56.3% · Market 55.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -131Model 56.6% · Market 53.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-142 → -131Logit -0.077 | 5 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 26, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,730
- Cumulative
- -2.7%
- Best day
- -2.7%
- Worst day
- -2.7%
- Settled bets
- 3
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,637 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
-$73 · -0.7%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,903 · tracked -$70 on $400 settled paper stake · -17.5% ROI
-$73 · -0.7%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,903 · tracked -$70 on $400 settled paper stake · -17.5% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 6.7%