+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
71 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
30 games unified from 109 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-25.
Games30
Settled30
First edge+4.8%
Pregame edge+5.1%
Average CLV+0.1%
Totals CLV+0.7%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0686faStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won1-7Paper stake $200 · P/L $202 | Paper betOver 7.5 +101Model 63.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +16.0% · Full Kelly 27.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 +101Model 63.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +16.0% · Full Kelly 27.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0686faStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassTexas Rangers -107Model 51.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -116Model 51.1% · Market 50.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n1fce00Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 45.0% · Market 43.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 54.0% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -126 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n1fce00Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 48.3% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 51.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf57db9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 57.4% · Market 54.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 44.3% · Market 38.0%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +152 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf57db9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassNew York Mets +134Model 44.0% · Market 40.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +129Model 42.4% · Market 41.9%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+134 → +129Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n0d05d1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassAthletics +134Model 42.6% · Market 40.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +129Model 42.8% · Market 41.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+134 → +129Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n0d05d1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -161Model 69.1% · Market 59.1%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -183Model 70.7% · Market 62.0%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%-161 → -183Logit 0.121 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4a2cb3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 67.1% · Market 58.6%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -183Model 68.5% · Market 62.0%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.4%-161 → -183Logit 0.143 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4a2cb3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassColorado Rockies +181Model 40.3% · Market 34.2%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +198Model 40.3% · Market 32.3%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+181 → +198Logit -0.087 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ndf4f38Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 53.8% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 53.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ndf4f38Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 54.9% · Market 47.6%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 57.5% · Market 50.5%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+101 → -112Logit 0.118 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb8c491Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 51.3% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 51.3% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb8c491Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 54.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 53.2% · Market 45.8%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+119 → +109Logit 0.081 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ndf6f07Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won11-0Paper stake $200 · P/L $238 | Paper betOver 8.5 +119Model 55.3% · Market 43.8%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 8.5 +119Model 55.3% · Market 43.8%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ndf6f07Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -137Model 54.9% · Market 54.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -126Model 54.0% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.4%-137 → -126Logit -0.056 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n07f9f3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.0% · Market 44.3%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+114 → +114Logit 0.015 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n07f9f3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 46.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -121Model 55.3% · Market 52.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -121 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n4cd2edStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 8.5 -116Model 51.4% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 47.3% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n4cd2edStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 48.5% · Market 48.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +105Model 52.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.4%-103 → +105Logit -0.057 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5c5290Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost6-0Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betOver 7.5 +119Model 60.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 +119Model 60.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5c5290Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassBoston Red Sox -121Model 57.5% · Market 52.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -112Model 57.1% · Market 50.5%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%-121 → -112Logit -0.074 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nb4e5d4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassMiami Marlins -137Model 54.9% · Market 54.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +124Model 46.0% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nb4e5d4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 52.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 51.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+105 → +114Logit -0.079 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n71fbeaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost2-9Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betUnder 8.5 +119Model 57.3% · Market 43.8%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 21.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betUnder 8.5 +119Model 57.3% · Market 43.8%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 21.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n71fbeaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassLos Angeles Angels +109Model 46.2% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +109Model 46.2% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na76233Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 46.5% · Market 44.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 47.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+114 → +114Logit 0.015 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na76233Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 61.1% · Market 55.3%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 61.1% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-137 → -142Logit 0.038 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ne235a7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassDetroit Tigers -183Model 61.4% · Market 61.4%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -168Model 61.5% · Market 60.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%-183 → -168Logit -0.056 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ne235a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 51.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 50.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+105 → +114Logit -0.079 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 25, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,040
- Cumulative
- +0.4%
- Best day
- +0.4%
- Worst day
- +0.4%
- Settled bets
- 4
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$31 · +0.3%
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,923 · tracked $40 on $800 settled paper stake · +5.0% ROI
+$31 · +0.3%
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,923 · tracked $40 on $800 settled paper stake · +5.0% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 2
- Rate
- 13.3%