Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

22 games unified from 89 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-24.

Games22
Settled22
First edge+5.8%
Pregame edge+6.0%
Average CLV-0.6%
Totals CLV-0.8%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Houston Astros at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n547e29Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-5PassOver 8.5 -121Model 56.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -126Model 59.4% · Market 53.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%-121 → -126Logit 0.0383 decision snapshots
Houston Astros at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n547e29Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost9-5PassHouston Astros +114Model 44.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox -137Model 55.2% · Market 54.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1376 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n096d10Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-6PassBoston Red Sox -126Model 58.8% · Market 53.3%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBoston Red Sox -131Model 60.4% · Market 53.8%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.4%-126 → -131Logit 0.0176 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n096d10Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-6PassOver 8.5 -112Model 62.3% · Market 50.5%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 20.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -126Model 59.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.8%-112 → -126Logit 0.1113 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n28e602Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon4-2PassNew York Mets +129Model 44.4% · Market 41.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassLos Angeles Dodgers -131Model 55.7% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1316 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n28e602Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 54.3% · Market 45.8%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 53.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.0433 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ncf9253Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-11PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 45.5% · Market 44.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 44.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.4%+114 → +114Logit 0.0156 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ncf9253Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-11PassOver 7.5 -103Model 58.0% · Market 48.6%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +105Model 56.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%-103 → +105Logit -0.0773 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nedfd65Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost4-2PassSan Diego Padres +114Model 46.1% · Market 44.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins -131Model 58.5% · Market 53.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1316 decision snapshots
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nedfd65Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-2PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 58.4% · Market 57.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 60.4% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%-148 → -142Logit -0.0404 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndd3661Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost7-6PassAtlanta Braves -103Model 49.5% · Market 48.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBaltimore Orioles -137Model 56.4% · Market 54.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → -1376 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndd3661Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-6PassOver 9.5 +114Model 54.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +129Model 50.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.8%+114 → +129Logit -0.1154 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n833f4bStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-2PassOver 10.5 +129Model 46.0% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +124Model 47.3% · Market 42.8%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.9%+129 → +124Logit 0.0383 decision snapshots
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n833f4bStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-2PassWashington Nationals +101Model 52.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +105Model 52.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+101 → +105Logit -0.0384 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n8d732cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon1-0PassNew York Yankees +109Model 47.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees +119Model 47.4% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%+109 → +119Logit -0.0814 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n8d732cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 54.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +140Model 49.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-5.8%+109 → +140Logit -0.2383 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n2b6dc3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost3-2PassChicago Cubs +101Model 49.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPittsburgh Pirates -112Model 50.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+101 → -1124 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n2b6dc3Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Paper Kelly trackedLost3-2Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betOver 6.5 -208Model 75.9% · Market 64.8%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 6.5 -208Model 75.9% · Market 64.8%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%-208 → -208Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6aa24eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betLost1-2PassKansas City Royals +240Model 41.1% · Market 28.3%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals +218Model 41.5% · Market 30.3%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+240 → +218Logit 0.0934 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6aa24eStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-2PassOver 7.5 -112Model 60.9% · Market 50.5%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +101Model 60.3% · Market 47.6%Edge +12.7% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%-112 → +101Logit -0.1182 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nfcbe08Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost5-2PassOver 9.5 +140Model 46.9% · Market 39.9%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +129Model 46.5% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+140 → +129Logit 0.0802 decision snapshots
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nfcbe08Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betWon5-2PassColorado Rockies +198Model 40.4% · Market 31.9%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +218Model 40.4% · Market 30.5%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.4%+198 → +218Logit -0.0654 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Jul 24, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,800
Cumulative
-2.0%
Best day
-2.0%
Worst day
-2.0%
Settled bets
1

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.2%-0.4%-1.0%-1.6%-2.2%Jul 24Aug 11Aug 29

Daily bankroll return

+2.0%-2.0%Jul 24Aug 11Aug 29

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $7,414 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $7,414 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
11
Both cleared
2
Rate
18.2%