Baseball

Today

Track today's paper bets as results come in, review yesterday's paper performance, then scan current projections by decision, edge, and information stage. No wagers are placed.

Today

Paper bets and results

July 31, 2026

Full performance details
No paper bets have been recommended today yet.When a projection becomes a recommended paper bet, it stays here and updates as settlement arrives.

Yesterday

Paper bets and results

July 30, 2026

Full performance details
Paper bets
8
Paper risked
11.7%
Paper to win
10.2%
Settled
8/8
Paper P/L
−3.6%
-$363
New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2
TotalOver 5.5 -239Edge +10.0% · Risk 1.6% · To win 0.7%Paper stake +$164Execution record →
Lost−1.6%-$164
New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2
TotalOver 9.5 +206Edge +12.4% · Risk 1.7% · To win 3.4%Paper stake +$166Execution record →
Lost−1.7%-$166
New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2
TotalOver 7.5 +101Edge +14.0% · Risk 0.5% · To win 0.5%Paper stake +$50Execution record →
Lost−0.5%-$50
New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2
TotalOver 8.5 +140Edge +13.0% · Risk 0.4% · To win 0.6%Paper stake +$43Execution record →
Lost−0.4%-$43
Miami MarlinsatNew York Mets
· Final 2-4
TotalOver 7.5 +119Edge +10.8% · Risk 2.0% · To win 2.4%Paper stake +$200Execution record →
Lost−2.0%-$200
Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
· Final 4-5
TotalUnder 12.5 -251Edge +10.1% · Risk 2.0% · To win 0.8%Paper stake +$200Execution record →
Won+0.8%+$80
Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
· Final 4-5
TotalUnder 10.5 -126Edge +10.1% · Risk 1.5% · To win 1.2%Paper stake +$153Execution record →
Won+1.2%+$121
Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
· Final 4-5
TotalUnder 13.5 -340Edge +10.1% · Risk 2.0% · To win 0.6%Paper stake +$200Execution record →
Won+0.6%+$59

Upcoming

Projection status and paper picks

Updated · Times shown in your browser's timezone

No paper bets currently qualifyNo games are close to the threshold
Games
7
Paper bets
0
Watchlist
0
Confirmed
0/7
Paper stake
$0
joint KellyTotals portfolio risks 0.0% of bankroll4,096 modeled outcomes
Standalone model
Coherent run distribution per game
Joint full Kelly
0.0%
Robust joint Kelly
0.0%
Deployable policy
0.0% · $0

Alternate totals are sized together against one bankroll. The robust portfolio blends 50% contemporaneous market distribution with the model, includes a ±0.75-run shared environment stress, then applies 25% Kelly and a 2.0% per-bet cap. Full deployment is constrained below 99.9%.

warnData quality: Projection feature coverage is usable with warnings.5 details
  • 3 of 14 probable pitcher starter slots used fallback starter features.
  • 7 of 7 projections use pre-lineup information and are published for context only; staking is disabled until both lineups are confirmed.
  • 6 of 45 confirmed-lineup batter slots used fallback batter features.
  • Some optional model feature artifacts are missing.
  • Context feature sources are stale or missing: manager_form.
View full diagnostics

Pittsburgh PiratesatCincinnati Reds

Paul Skenes vs. Hunter Greene

Best current leanCincinnati Reds +105Waiting for both confirmed lineups
Implied edge+6.7%
Probable startersInfo only
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineupsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineCincinnati Reds +105
Model probability
53.4%
Market probability
46.7%
Implied edge
+6.7%
Expected profit
+$0.09 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details

FanGraphs 48.1% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 9.0% ($902). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.

TotalOver 9.5 +188
Model probability
39.5%
Market probability
34.5%
Implied edge
+4.9%
Expected profit
+$0.14 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details

Model total 8.3 vs. line 8.5 (−0.2) · kalshi · polymarket · Standalone full Kelly 7.3% ($726). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.

Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupPaul Skenes uses offspeed pitches 8 pts more often
Paul SkenesThrough Jul 25
Fastball
66%
Breaking
26%
Offspeed
8%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 58%

Hunter GreeneThrough Jul 25
Fastball
67%
Breaking
33%
Offspeed
0%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 45%

Research modelAwaiting a research forecast

The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.

The next successful research run will populate this section.

Philadelphia PhilliesatBaltimore Orioles

Unknown starter vs. Brandon Young

Best current leanUnder 4.5 +625Waiting for complete actionable model inputs
Implied edge+5.5%
EarlyInfo only
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsSchedule-only inputs; starters and lineups are still TBD
MoneylinePhiladelphia Phillies -103
Model probability
50.4%
Market probability
48.1%
Implied edge
+2.3%
Expected profit
−$0.01 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details

FanGraphs 43.9% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 0.0% ($0). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.

TotalUnder 4.5 +625
Model probability
18.9%
Market probability
13.5%
Implied edge
+5.5%
Expected profit
+$0.37 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details

Model total 8.4 vs. line 8.5 (−0.1) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 6.0% ($597). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.

Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupPitch-mix comparison is incomplete
Unknown starterUnavailable

No fresh mapped Statcast pitch profile.

Brandon YoungThrough Jul 25
Fastball
74%
Breaking
26%
Offspeed
0%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 41%

Research modelAwaiting a research forecast

The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.

The next successful research run will populate this section.

St. Louis CardinalsatToronto Blue Jays

Kyle Leahy vs. Dylan Cease

Best current leanOver 7.5 -103Waiting for complete actionable model inputs
Implied edge+11.5%
Probable startersInfo only
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineSt. Louis Cardinals +152
Model probability
45.4%
Market probability
37.7%
Implied edge
+7.7%
Expected profit
+$0.14 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details

FanGraphs 36.4% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 9.5% ($948). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.

TotalOver 7.5 -103
Model probability
61.0%
Market probability
49.5%
Implied edge
+11.5%
Expected profit
+$0.20 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details

Model total 8.8 vs. line 8.5 (+0.3) · kalshi · polymarket · Standalone full Kelly 20.8% ($2,077). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.

Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupDylan Cease uses fastball pitches 8 pts more often
Kyle LeahyThrough Jul 26
Fastball
37%
Breaking
47%
Offspeed
15%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 73%

Dylan CeaseThrough Jul 25
Fastball
46%
Breaking
41%
Offspeed
14%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 71%

Research modelAwaiting a research forecast

The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.

The next successful research run will populate this section.

Chicago White SoxatTampa Bay Rays

Erick Fedde vs. Nick Martinez

Best current leanOver 9.5 +165Waiting for complete actionable model inputs
Implied edge+4.6%
Probable startersInfo only
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineChicago White Sox +124
Model probability
44.1%
Market probability
42.8%
Implied edge
+1.3%
Expected profit
−$0.01 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details

FanGraphs 38.3% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 0.0% ($0). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.

TotalOver 9.5 +165
Model probability
41.5%
Market probability
36.9%
Implied edge
+4.6%
Expected profit
+$0.10 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details

Model total 8.5 vs. line 8.5 (+0.0) · kalshi · polymarket · Standalone full Kelly 6.1% ($610). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.

Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupErick Fedde uses breaking pitches 27 pts more often
Erick FeddeThrough Jul 26
Fastball
54%
Breaking
33%
Offspeed
6%
Other
6%

Mix diversity 61%

Nick MartinezThrough Jul 25
Fastball
69%
Breaking
6%
Offspeed
25%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 55%

Research modelAwaiting a research forecast

The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.

The next successful research run will populate this section.

Arizona DiamondbacksatCleveland Guardians

Mitch Bratt vs. Tanner Bibee

Best current leanUnder 4.5 +625Waiting for complete actionable model inputs
Implied edge+5.5%
EarlyInfo only
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsSchedule-only inputs; starters and lineups are still TBD
MoneylineArizona Diamondbacks +119
Model probability
46.7%
Market probability
43.8%
Implied edge
+2.9%
Expected profit
+$0.02 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details

FanGraphs 47.2% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 1.9% ($191). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.

TotalUnder 4.5 +625
Model probability
19.0%
Market probability
13.5%
Implied edge
+5.5%
Expected profit
+$0.38 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details

Model total 8.4 vs. line 9.5 (−1.1) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 6.0% ($604). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.

Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupPitch-mix comparison is incomplete
Mitch BrattUnavailable

No fresh mapped Statcast pitch profile.

Tanner BibeeThrough Jul 25
Fastball
69%
Breaking
21%
Offspeed
10%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 56%

Research modelAwaiting a research forecast

The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.

The next successful research run will populate this section.

Miami MarlinsatNew York Mets

Janson Junk vs. Unknown starter

Best current leanUnder 2.5 +2243Waiting for complete actionable model inputs
Implied edge+5.5%
EarlyInfo only
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsSchedule-only inputs; starters and lineups are still TBD
MoneylineMiami Marlins +101
Model probability
53.1%
Market probability
47.6%
Implied edge
+5.5%
Expected profit
+$0.07 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details

FanGraphs 39.1% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 6.7% ($666). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.

TotalUnder 2.5 +2243
Model probability
9.7%
Market probability
4.2%
Implied edge
+5.5%
Expected profit
+$1.27 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details

Model total 8.3 vs. line 8.5 (−0.2) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 5.7% ($567). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.

Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupPitch-mix comparison is incomplete
Janson JunkThrough Jul 26
Fastball
54%
Breaking
32%
Offspeed
14%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 69%

Unknown starterUnavailable

No fresh mapped Statcast pitch profile.

Research modelAwaiting a research forecast

The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.

The next successful research run will populate this section.

Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves

Foster Griffin vs. Bryce Elder

Best current leanUnder 2.5 +3021Waiting for complete actionable model inputs
Implied edge+3.6%
Probable startersInfo only
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineAtlanta Braves -121
Model probability
53.9%
Market probability
52.4%
Implied edge
+1.5%
Expected profit
−$0.02 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details

FanGraphs 58.0% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 0.0% ($0). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.

TotalUnder 2.5 +3021
Model probability
6.8%
Market probability
3.1%
Implied edge
+3.6%
Expected profit
+$1.11 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details

Model total 9.2 vs. line 7.5 (+1.7) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 3.7% ($369). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.

Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupBryce Elder uses fastball pitches 9 pts more often
Foster GriffinThrough Jul 25
Fastball
64%
Breaking
23%
Offspeed
12%
Other
1%

Mix diversity 62%

Bryce ElderThrough Jul 25
Fastball
74%
Breaking
19%
Offspeed
7%
Other
0%

Mix diversity 51%

Research modelAwaiting a research forecast

The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.

The next successful research run will populate this section.

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