+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Performance
One unified paper ledger per game, connecting the first model recommendation, the latest pregame decision, closing-line value, and the final result for both moneyline and totals. Every positive stake shown here is hypothetical; no wager is placed.
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat.
- Current bankroll
- $9,637
- Cumulative
- -3.6%
- Best day
- -3.6%
- Worst day
- -3.6%
- Settled bets
- 8
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
Each market/checkpoint strategy starts with $10,000 and compounds only recommendations that cleared the policy gate. Recommended Kelly is the published, capped sizing; full Kelly remains a benchmark. Paper stake, profit, and ROI come from settled decisions. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$13 · +0.1%
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.6%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,993 · tracked $16 on $796 settled paper stake · +2.0% ROI
-$264 · -2.6%
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 3-3
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.5%
Full Kelly benchmark $6,937 · tracked -$263 on $877 settled paper stake · -30.0% ROI
Prospective paper experiment
5% vs. 7.5% vs. 10% edge
First confirmed-lineup pregame decision per game and market; fixed one-unit stake; positive EV required; latest comparable pregame price supplies CLV.
Frozen start · collecting · review after every arm has 50 CLV samples and 50 settled bets.
| Threshold | Candidates | CLV | Settled | W-L-P | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 3 | -0.3% n=2 | 2 | 1-1-0 | +2.5% |
| 7.5% | 2 | -0.3% n=2 | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% |
| 10.0% | 2 | -0.3% n=2 | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% |
Telegram Activity
Every alert decision, including silence
Projection history stays complete. This audit shows why each refresh sent an immediate message or was intentionally suppressed.
| Evaluated | Game | State | Telegram | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Sent | Paper selection flipped | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Sent | Paper selection flipped | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Sent | Paper selection flipped | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Sent | Paper selection flipped | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | PAPER BET | Sent | Entered paper recommendation | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PAPER BET | Sent | Entered paper recommendation | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals | PASS | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White SoxNew York Yankees | PAPER BET | Quiet | Routine refresh | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups |
Game Performance
First look vs. latest pregame
21 games unified from 1473 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-30.
Games21
Settled21
First edge+6.2%
Pregame edge+6.5%
Average CLV+0.4%
Totals CLV+0.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $80 | Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 78.9% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 78.9% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $59 | +0.0%-251 → -251Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 55.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 38 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassWashington Nationals +124Model 46.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +134Model 43.3% · Market 40.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+124 → +134Logit -0.076 | 15 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-5Paper stake $153 · P/L $121 | Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 63.9% · Market 53.9%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $153 | Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 63.9% · Market 53.9%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $153 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $59 | Paper betUnder 13.5 -340Model 84.7% · Market 74.6%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betUnder 13.5 -340Model 84.7% · Market 74.6%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-340 → -340Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n09ca0aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 51.5% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 52.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 14 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n09ca0aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost2-4Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betOver 7.5 +119Model 55.5% · Market 44.7%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 +114Model 55.5% · Market 45.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $165 | +0.5%+119 → +114Logit 0.020 | -1 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64cbdeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 52.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-112 → -103Logit -0.079 | 102 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64cbdeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 51.6% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 49.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | 20 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6875ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassChicago Cubs +101Model 48.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -112Model 51.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -112 | 43 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6875ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 45.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 46.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.038 | 76 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 51.0% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -103Model 50.5% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-107 → -103Logit -0.035 | 15 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $164 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 5.5 -239Model 77.8% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $164 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 77.8% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-239 → -239Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.3% · Market 25.4%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.3% · Market 25.4%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+280 → +280Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $166 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 44.9% · Market 32.6%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $166 | Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 44.9% · Market 32.1%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $126 | -0.5%+206 → +206Logit -0.023 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $50 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 7.5 +101Model 62.5% · Market 48.5%Edge +14.0% · Full Kelly 25.4%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $50 | Paper betOver 7.5 +105Model 62.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $176 | -0.9%+101 → +105Logit -0.038 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $43 · P/L -$43 | Paper betOver 8.5 +140Model 53.8% · Market 40.8%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.4% · $43 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 53.8% · Market 41.3%Edge +12.5% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+140 → +140Logit 0.019 | -1 model points |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n6e8cdfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.2% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 27 model points |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n6e8cdfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassKansas City Royals +119Model 46.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +114Model 47.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.038 | 73 model points |
| Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n87180dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.1% · Market 61.0%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.7% · Market 63.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%-175 → -199Logit 0.123 | 65 model points |
| Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n87180dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 58.0% · Market 55.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -175Model 62.6% · Market 61.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.7%-137 → -175Logit 0.235 | 45 model points |