+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Performance
One unified paper ledger per game, connecting the first model recommendation, the latest pregame decision, closing-line value, and the final result for both moneyline and totals. Every positive stake shown here is hypothetical; no wager is placed.
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
Each market/checkpoint strategy starts with $10,000 and compounds only recommendations that cleared the policy gate. Recommended Kelly is the published, capped sizing; full Kelly remains a benchmark. Paper stake, profit, and ROI come from settled decisions. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Prospective paper experiment
5% vs. 7.5% vs. 10% edge
First confirmed-lineup pregame decision per game and market; fixed one-unit stake; positive EV required; latest comparable pregame price supplies CLV.
Frozen start · collecting · review after every arm has 50 CLV samples and 50 settled bets.
| Threshold | Candidates | CLV | Settled | W-L-P | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 1 | -1.0% n=1 | 0 | 0-0-0 | - |
| 7.5% | 0 | - n=0 | 0 | 0-0-0 | - |
| 10.0% | 0 | - n=0 | 0 | 0-0-0 | - |
Telegram Activity
Every alert decision, including silence
Projection history stays complete. This audit shows why each refresh sent an immediate message or was intentionally suppressed.
| Evaluated | Game | State | Telegram | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Sent | Starter changed materially | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge |
Game Performance
First look vs. latest pregame
16 games unified from 1312 stored model snapshots on 2026-07-31.
Games16
Settled0
First edge+3.7%
Pregame edge+3.6%
Average CLV-0.5%
Totals CLV-0.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncff2b1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +109Model 46.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -121Model 53.9% · Market 52.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -121 | -1 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncff2b1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 63.8% · Market 61.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -183Model 64.8% · Market 62.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-175 → -183Logit 0.040 | 82 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n5e8308Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 82 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n5e8308Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +124Model 43.7% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +124Model 44.1% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 82 model points |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n859703Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 46.6% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +119Model 46.7% · Market 43.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+109 → +119Logit -0.081 | 82 model points |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n859703Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.7% · Market 58.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 59.3% · Market 59.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-161 → -161Logit 0.021 | 26 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na0b79cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 56.3% · Market 51.4%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.079 | 82 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na0b79cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 50.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +101Model 53.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.074 | 82 model points |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 55.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.2% · Market 40.9%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%+114 → +134Logit -0.154 | 82 model points |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +146Model 46.0% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 45.4% · Market 37.7%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%+146 → +152Logit -0.055 | 82 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n2a2464Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 54.8% · Market 54.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → -103 | 37 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n2a2464Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 82 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n5f6bf9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 51.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 53.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+105 → +105Logit 0.017 | 82 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n5f6bf9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 54.8% · Market 42.8%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 48.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+124 → +119Logit 0.040 | 82 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n575397Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 61.8% · Market 61.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 37.5% · Market 35.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +173 | 59 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n575397Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees +124Model 47.8% · Market 42.4%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +140Model 41.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.5%+124 → +140Logit -0.102 | 76 model points |